Prediction Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2025-09-27
14:15
Atletico Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
65%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Real Madrid
Away
Prediction Summary
1
25%
X
22%
2
53%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Atletico Madrid (Home)
Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate47%
Real Madrid (Away)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atletico Madrid
LWWLW
Real Madrid
WWWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
89%
58%
+1.5
58%
42%
+2.5
16%
11%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.
Atletico Madrid averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Real Madrid averages 1.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
65%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
25%
Draw
22%
Away Win
53%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
64%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Atletico Madrid(A)
2 - 3
Real Madrid
Away
Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
5 - 2
Real Madrid
Home
Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid
1 - 0
Real Madrid
Home
Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid(A)
1 - 2
Real Madrid
Away
Feb 2025
Atletico Madrid(A)
1 - 1
Real Madrid
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Atletico Madrid — unbeaten run (home)1
Atletico Madrid — scoring streak (home)1
Real Madrid — winless run (away)0
Real Madrid — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atletico Madrid Win (1)25%
Draw (X)22%
Real Madrid Win (2)53%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
89%
58%
+1.5
58%
42%
+2.5
16%
11%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
11%
42%
-1.5
42%
58%
-2.5
84%
89%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
100%
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atletico Madrid — scored (home)2.05
Atletico Madrid — conceded (home)0.89
Real Madrid — scored (away)1.68
Real Madrid — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals3.33
Both Teams To Score
Yes64%
No36%
Rate per Team
Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (home)47%
Real Madrid — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.595%
Under 6.55%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.579%
Under 8.521%
Over 9.568%
Under 9.532%
Over 10.550%
Under 10.550%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atletico Madrid (home)
Corners for7.8
Corners against3.8
Real Madrid (away)
Corners for6.1
Corners against4.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atletico Madrid
8
10
12
17
14
Real Madrid
11
12
9
8
3
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Atletico Madrid (home)
For2.0
Real Madrid (away)
For1.7
Shots per Game
Atletico Madrid — total shots (home)15.4
Real Madrid — total shots (away)15.9
Shots on Target
Atletico Madrid — on target (home)6.3
Real Madrid — on target (away)5.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atletico Madrid
Inside the box9.13
Outside the box3.97
Real Madrid
Inside the box11.13
Outside the box6.34
Player Shots Atletico Madrid
A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target24%
N. González
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Simeone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappé
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target84%
+1.5 On Target68%
Vinícius Júnior
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target36%
J. Bellingham
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Valverde
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Rodrygo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid xG (home)1.55
Real Madrid xG (away)2.05
Average Possession
53.32%
Possession
59.39%
Team Comparison Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
84.95%
Pass accuracy
89.18%
505.37
Passes per match
587.05
0.13
Goals prevented
0.02
11.18
Fouls committed
10
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.26
2.19
Offsides
2.23
17.03
Tackles per match
15.55
League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction analysis
Review Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights