Prediction Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2024-12-08
20:00
Atletico Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Sevilla
Away
Prediction Summary
1
63%
X
23%
2
14%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Atletico Madrid (Home)
Goals scored / match2.21
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate47%
Sevilla (Away)
Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match1.68
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate58%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atletico Madrid
WWLWD
Sevilla
LLWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
95%
+0.5
74%
63%
+1.5
42%
42%
+2.5
11%
21%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
58%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Medium.
Atletico Madrid averages 2.21 goals scored at home, while Sevilla averages 1.32 goals scored away.
Model Strength
63%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
63%
Draw
23%
Away Win
14%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Atletico Madrid(A)
1 - 2
Sevilla
Away
Nov 2025
Atletico Madrid
3 - 0
Sevilla
Home
Apr 2025
Atletico Madrid(A)
2 - 1
Sevilla
Home
Dec 2024
Atletico Madrid
4 - 3
Sevilla
Home
Feb 2024
Atletico Madrid(A)
0 - 1
Sevilla
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Atletico Madrid — unbeaten run (home)4
Atletico Madrid — scoring streak (home)17
Sevilla — winless run (away)5
Sevilla — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atletico Madrid Win (1)63%
Draw (X)23%
Sevilla Win (2)14%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
95%
+0.5
74%
63%
+1.5
42%
42%
+2.5
11%
21%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
5%
-0.5
26%
37%
-1.5
58%
58%
-2.5
89%
79%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atletico Madrid — scored (home)2.21
Atletico Madrid — conceded (home)0.79
Sevilla — scored (away)1.32
Sevilla — conceded (away)1.68
Model expected combined goals2.5
Both Teams To Score
Yes42%
No58%
Rate per Team
Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (home)47%
Sevilla — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)52.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atletico Madrid (home)
Corners for5.8
Corners against3.4
Sevilla (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atletico Madrid
8
6
8
11
9
Sevilla
10
9
6
8
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Atletico Madrid (home)
For1.9
Sevilla (away)
For2.2
Shots per Game
Atletico Madrid — total shots (home)14.6
Sevilla — total shots (away)11.5
Shots on Target
Atletico Madrid — on target (home)5.9
Sevilla — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atletico Madrid
Inside the box8.45
Outside the box3.89
Sevilla
Inside the box7.45
Outside the box5.05
Player Shots Atletico Madrid
A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target26%
J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target24%
Robin Le Normand
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target4%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Gallagher
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Sevilla
A. Adams
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
Jesús Navas
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target7%
Kike Salas
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. Lukebakio
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target26%
Juanlu Sánchez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target3%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid xG (home)1.73
Sevilla xG (away)1.11
Average Possession
52.53%
Possession
50.58%
Team Comparison Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla
84.61%
Pass accuracy
81.82%
518.08
Passes per match
432.63
0.02
Goals prevented
-0.07
10.84
Fouls committed
13
2.32
Goalkeeper saves
2.47
2.12
Offsides
2.06
16.29
Tackles per match
17.03
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla prediction analysis
Review Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights