Prediction Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2024-09-15
19:00
Atletico Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Valencia
Away
Prediction Summary
1
64%
X
21%
2
16%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Atletico Madrid (Home)
Goals scored / match2.21
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate47%
Valencia (Away)
Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atletico Madrid
WWLWD
Valencia
DLLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
95%
+0.5
68%
63%
+1.5
16%
42%
+2.5
11%
21%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
Atletico Madrid averages 2.21 goals scored at home, while Valencia averages 0.95 goals scored away.
Model Strength
64%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
64%
Draw
21%
Away Win
16%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Atletico Madrid(A)
2 - 0
Valencia
Home
Dec 2025
Atletico Madrid
2 - 1
Valencia
Home
Feb 2025
Atletico Madrid(A)
3 - 0
Valencia
Home
Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid
3 - 0
Valencia
Home
Jan 2024
Atletico Madrid
2 - 0
Valencia
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 5, drew 0 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Atletico Madrid — unbeaten run (home)4
Atletico Madrid — scoring streak (home)17
Valencia — winless run (away)2
Valencia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atletico Madrid Win (1)64%
Draw (X)21%
Valencia Win (2)16%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
95%
+0.5
68%
63%
+1.5
16%
42%
+2.5
11%
21%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
5%
-0.5
32%
37%
-1.5
84%
58%
-2.5
89%
79%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atletico Madrid — scored (home)2.21
Atletico Madrid — conceded (home)0.79
Valencia — scored (away)0.95
Valencia — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.87
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (home)47%
Valencia — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)57.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atletico Madrid (home)
Corners for5.8
Corners against3.4
Valencia (away)
Corners for3.9
Corners against6.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atletico Madrid
8
6
8
11
9
Valencia
14
8
13
8
5
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Atletico Madrid (home)
For1.9
Valencia (away)
For2.2
Shots per Game
Atletico Madrid — total shots (home)14.6
Valencia — total shots (away)8.9
Shots on Target
Atletico Madrid — on target (home)5.9
Valencia — on target (away)2.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atletico Madrid
Inside the box8.45
Outside the box3.89
Valencia
Inside the box6.79
Outside the box3.37
Player Shots Atletico Madrid
A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target26%
J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target24%
Robin Le Normand
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target4%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Gallagher
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Valencia
Hugo Duro
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target19%
Sergi Canós
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target6%
Javi Guerra
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target8%
Dani Gómez
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
Pepelu
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target3%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid xG (home)1.73
Valencia xG (away)1.12
Average Possession
52.53%
Possession
48.32%
Team Comparison Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
84.61%
Pass accuracy
80.08%
518.08
Passes per match
419.5
0.02
Goals prevented
-0.03
10.84
Fouls committed
11.63
2.32
Goalkeeper saves
2.61
2.12
Offsides
1.89
16.29
Tackles per match
17
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction analysis
Review Atletico Madrid vs Valencia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights