Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
La Liga 2026-08-23 15:00
Atletico Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Villarreal
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
24%
2
24%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Atletico Madrid (Home)

Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate47%

Villarreal (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico Madrid
LWWLW
Villarreal
WLLDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 79%
58% +1.5 37%
42% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Low.

Atletico Madrid averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Villarreal averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
24%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Atletico Madrid(A) 1 - 5 Villarreal Away
Sep 2025 Atletico Madrid 2 - 0 Villarreal Home
Jan 2025 Atletico Madrid 1 - 1 Villarreal Draw
Aug 2024 Atletico Madrid(A) 2 - 2 Villarreal Draw
Apr 2024 Atletico Madrid(A) 2 - 1 Villarreal Home

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Atletico Madrid — unbeaten run (home)1
Atletico Madrid — scoring streak (home)1
Villarreal — winless run (away)3
Villarreal — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico Madrid Win (1)53%
Draw (X)24%
Villarreal Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 79%
58% +1.5 37%
42% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 21%
42% -1.5 63%
58% -2.5 89%
89% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico Madrid — scored (home)2.05
Atletico Madrid — conceded (home)0.89
Villarreal — scored (away)1.26
Villarreal — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals2.82

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (home)47%
Villarreal — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico Madrid (home)

Corners for7.8
Corners against3.8

Villarreal (away)

Corners for3.0
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico Madrid
8 10 12 17 14
Villarreal
10 9 10 10 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico Madrid (home)

For2.0

Villarreal (away)

For2.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.63

Atletico Madrid

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.43
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.14

Villarreal

Shots Over 9.552%
Shots Over 11.535%
Shots Over 13.521%
Expected shots10.20
On Target Over 3.542%
On Target Over 4.526%
On Target Over 5.514%
Expected on target3.35

Shots per Game

Atletico Madrid — total shots (home)15.4
Villarreal — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Atletico Madrid — on target (home)6.3
Villarreal — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico Madrid

Inside the box9.13
Outside the box3.97

Villarreal

Inside the box8.45
Outside the box3.53

Player Shots Atletico Madrid

A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target24%
N. González
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Simeone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Villarreal

Etta Eyong
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
G. Mikautadze
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target28%
Gerard Moreno
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target14%
N. Pépé
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target14%
Alberto Moleiro
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Madrid xG (home)1.55
Villarreal xG (away)1.53

Average Possession

53.32% Possession 44.53%

Team Comparison Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

84.95% Pass accuracy 82.11%
505.37 Passes per match 409.03
0.13 Goals prevented -0.29
11.18 Fouls committed 11.95
2.55 Goalkeeper saves 2.71
2.19 Offsides 2
17.03 Tackles per match 17.32

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction analysis

Review Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top