What markets are included in the Atletico-MG vs Bahia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Bahia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Bahia

Atletico-MG vs Bahia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-05 23:00

Atletico-MG

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

40%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Bahia

Away

Prediction Summary

51%

27%

22%

Under 2.5

60%

BTTS No

56%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atletico-MG (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Bahia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89

Goals conceded / match1.68

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Bahia

LWDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 63%

42% +1.5 21%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Bahia averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength

60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Yes

44%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Bahia Draw

Nov 2025 Atletico-MG 3 - 0 Bahia Home

Jul 2025 Atletico-MG(A) 1 - 2 Bahia Away

Sep 2024 Atletico-MG(A) 0 - 3 Bahia Away

Jun 2024 Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Bahia Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1

Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1

Bahia — winless run (away)10

Bahia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico-MG Win (1)51%

Draw (X)27%

Bahia Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 63%

42% +1.5 21%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 37%

58% -1.5 79%

74% -2.5 95%

95% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Atletico-MG vs Bahia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58

Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95

Bahia — scored (away)0.89

Bahia — conceded (away)1.68

Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%

No56%

Rate per Team

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%

Bahia — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.584%

Under 6.516%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.574%

Under 8.526%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico-MG (home)

Corners for7.0

Corners against3.8

Bahia (away)

Corners for4.2

Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico-MG (home)

For2.6

Bahia (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6

Bahia — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4

Bahia — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09

Bahia xG (away)1.37

Average Possession

54.16% Possession 55.26%

Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Bahia

83.87% Pass accuracy 85.92%

451.13 Passes per match 468.39

0.03 Goals prevented -0.11

13.24 Fouls committed 12.32

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.92

1.83 Offsides 1.25

15.45 Tackles per match 15.87

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico-MG vs Bahia prediction analysis

Review Atletico-MG vs Bahia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights