What markets are included in the Atletico-MG vs Corinthians prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Corinthians prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Corinthians

Atletico-MG vs Corinthians prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2025-05-25 00:00

Atletico-MG

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Corinthians

Away

Prediction Summary

64%

22%

14%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS No

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atletico-MG (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Corinthians (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79

Goals conceded / match1.53

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Corinthians

DLDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 68%

42% +1.5 5%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Corinthians averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength

64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

64%

Draw

22%

Away Win

14%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Atletico-MG(A) 0 - 1 Corinthians Away

May 2025 Atletico-MG 0 - 0 Corinthians Draw

Jul 2024 Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Corinthians Home

Apr 2024 Atletico-MG(A) 0 - 0 Corinthians Draw

Nov 2023 Atletico-MG(A) 1 - 1 Corinthians Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1

Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1

Corinthians — winless run (away)3

Corinthians — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico-MG Win (1)64%

Draw (X)22%

Corinthians Win (2)14%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 68%

42% +1.5 5%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 32%

58% -1.5 95%

74% -2.5 95%

95% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Atletico-MG vs Corinthians — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58

Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95

Corinthians — scored (away)0.79

Corinthians — conceded (away)1.53

Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%

No55%

Rate per Team

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%

Corinthians — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.589%

Under 4.511%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.561%

Under 8.539%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico-MG (home)

Corners for7.0

Corners against3.8

Corinthians (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Corinthians

9 12 12 7 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.598%

Under 2.52%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico-MG (home)

For2.6

Corinthians (away)

For3.3

Shots per Game

Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6

Corinthians — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4

Corinthians — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Corinthians

Inside the box7.39

Outside the box4.13

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Corinthians

Yuri Alberto

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target27%

M. Depay

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target57%

+1.5 On Target26%

Igor Coronado

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

Gustavo Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target9%

Vitinho

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09

Corinthians xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

54.16% Possession 55.74%

Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Corinthians

83.87% Pass accuracy 84.82%

451.13 Passes per match 467.61

0.03 Goals prevented 0.03

13.24 Fouls committed 13.95

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.43

1.83 Offsides 1.79

15.45 Tackles per match 15.97

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico-MG vs Corinthians prediction analysis

Review Atletico-MG vs Corinthians with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights