What markets are included in the Atletico-MG vs Fluminense prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Fluminense prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Fluminense

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-11 20:30

Atletico-MG

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

28%

Confidence

High

Score

1-0

Fluminense

Away

Prediction Summary

48%

31%

21%

Under 2.5

72%

BTTS No

66%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Atletico-MG (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Fluminense (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Fluminense

WWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 58%

42% +1.5 37%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 28%. Model confidence is High.

Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Fluminense averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

72%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Over 2.5

28%

BTTS Yes

34%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Atletico-MG(A) 0 - 3 Fluminense Away

May 2025 Atletico-MG 3 - 2 Fluminense Home

Aug 2024 Atletico-MG 0 - 2 Fluminense Away

May 2024 Atletico-MG(A) 2 - 2 Fluminense Draw

Oct 2023 Atletico-MG 2 - 0 Fluminense Home

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1

Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1

Fluminense — winless run (away)0

Fluminense — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico-MG Win (1)48%

Draw (X)31%

Fluminense Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 58%

42% +1.5 37%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 42%

58% -1.5 63%

74% -2.5 95%

95% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58

Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95

Fluminense — scored (away)1

Fluminense — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals1.83

Both Teams To Score

Yes34%

No66%

Rate per Team

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%

Fluminense — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.589%

Under 5.511%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.577%

Under 7.523%

Over 8.574%

Under 8.526%

Over 9.563%

Under 9.537%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico-MG (home)

Corners for7.0

Corners against3.8

Fluminense (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Fluminense

8 13 7 10 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.590%

Under 2.510%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico-MG (home)

For2.6

Fluminense (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6

Fluminense — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4

Fluminense — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Fluminense

Inside the box7.53

Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Fluminense

K. Serna

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target9%

G. Cano

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

A. Canobbio

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

John Kennedy

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target12%

L. Acosta

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09

Fluminense xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

54.16% Possession 52.92%

Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Fluminense

83.87% Pass accuracy 84.87%

451.13 Passes per match 468.34

0.03 Goals prevented -0.1

13.24 Fouls committed 12.84

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.51

1.83 Offsides 0.94

15.45 Tackles per match 15

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico-MG vs Fluminense prediction analysis

Review Atletico-MG vs Fluminense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights