What markets are included in the Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC

Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-12 23:30

Atletico-MG

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

40%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Fortaleza EC

Away

Prediction Summary

57%

25%

17%

Under 2.5

60%

BTTS No

59%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atletico-MG (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Fortaleza EC (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05

Goals conceded / match1.84

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Fortaleza EC

LWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 74%

42% +1.5 21%

26% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Fortaleza EC averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength

60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

17%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Yes

41%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Atletico-MG(A) 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC Away

Nov 2025 Atletico-MG 3 - 3 Fortaleza EC Draw

Oct 2024 Atletico-MG(A) 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC Draw

Jun 2024 Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC Draw

Nov 2023 Atletico-MG 3 - 1 Fortaleza EC Home

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1

Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1

Fortaleza EC — winless run (away)1

Fortaleza EC — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico-MG Win (1)57%

Draw (X)25%

Fortaleza EC Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 74%

42% +1.5 21%

26% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 26%

58% -1.5 79%

74% -2.5 89%

95% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58

Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95

Fortaleza EC — scored (away)1.05

Fortaleza EC — conceded (away)1.84

Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes41%

No59%

Rate per Team

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%

Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (away)68%

Combined (simple average)57.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.584%

Under 6.516%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.555%

Under 9.545%

Over 10.545%

Under 10.555%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico-MG (home)

Corners for7.0

Corners against3.8

Fortaleza EC (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Fortaleza EC

12 11 11 7 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.582%

Under 2.518%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico-MG (home)

For2.6

Fortaleza EC (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6

Fortaleza EC — total shots (away)10.5

Shots on Target

Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4

Fortaleza EC — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Fortaleza EC

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box5.26

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Fortaleza EC

A. Bareiro

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target19%

Breno Lopes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target9%

J. Herrera

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target11%

T. Pochettino

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target19%

Deyverson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09

Fortaleza EC xG (away)1.19

Average Possession

54.16% Possession 44.18%

Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC

83.87% Pass accuracy 79.24%

451.13 Passes per match 354.39

0.03 Goals prevented 0.01

13.24 Fouls committed 14.18

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.63

1.83 Offsides 2.06

15.45 Tackles per match 17.79

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC prediction analysis

Review Atletico-MG vs Fortaleza EC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights