What markets are included in the Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Gremio

Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-17 19:00

Atletico-MG

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

42%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Gremio

Away

Prediction Summary

58%

25%

17%

Under 2.5

58%

BTTS No

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atletico-MG (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Gremio (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21

Goals conceded / match1.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Gremio

WLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 68%

42% +1.5 32%

26% +2.5 16%

5% +3.5 5%

5% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Gremio averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

58%

Draw

25%

Away Win

17%

Over 2.5

42%

BTTS Yes

42%

Head-to-Head last 5

Aug 2025 Atletico-MG 1 - 3 Gremio Away

Mar 2025 Atletico-MG(A) 1 - 2 Gremio Away

Oct 2024 Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Gremio Home

Sep 2024 Atletico-MG(A) 3 - 2 Gremio Home

Nov 2023 Atletico-MG 3 - 0 Gremio Home

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1

Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1

Gremio — winless run (away)0

Gremio — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico-MG Win (1)58%

Draw (X)25%

Gremio Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 68%

42% +1.5 32%

26% +2.5 16%

5% +3.5 5%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 32%

58% -1.5 68%

74% -2.5 84%

95% -3.5 95%

95% -4.5 100%

Atletico-MG vs Gremio — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58

Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95

Gremio — scored (away)1.21

Gremio — conceded (away)1.74

Model expected combined goals2.35

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%

No58%

Rate per Team

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%

Gremio — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.584%

Under 6.516%

Over 7.582%

Under 7.518%

Over 8.568%

Under 8.532%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.545%

Under 10.555%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico-MG (home)

Corners for7.0

Corners against3.8

Gremio (away)

Corners for3.7

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Gremio

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.598%

Under 2.52%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico-MG (home)

For2.6

Gremio (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6

Gremio — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4

Gremio — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Gremio

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target36%

M. Braithwaite

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Amuzu

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

André Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Arezo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09

Gremio xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

54.16% Possession 45.16%

Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Gremio

83.87% Pass accuracy 82.32%

451.13 Passes per match 379.66

0.03 Goals prevented 0.22

13.24 Fouls committed 13.37

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.41

1.83 Offsides 1.08

15.45 Tackles per match 17.37

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction analysis

Review Atletico-MG vs Gremio with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights