What markets are included in the Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife

Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-08 22:00

Atletico-MG

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

34%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Sport Recife

Away

Prediction Summary

52%

28%

20%

Under 2.5

66%

BTTS No

62%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atletico-MG (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Sport Recife (Away)

Goals scored / match0.58

Goals conceded / match1.89

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Sport Recife

LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 47%

42% +1.5 11%

26% +2.5 0%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 34%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Sport Recife averages 0.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength

66%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Over 2.5

34%

BTTS Yes

38%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Atletico-MG(A) 4 - 2 Sport Recife Home

Oct 2025 Atletico-MG 3 - 1 Sport Recife Home

May 2024 Atletico-MG(A) 0 - 1 Sport Recife Away

May 2024 Atletico-MG 2 - 0 Sport Recife Home

Sep 2021 Atletico-MG 3 - 0 Sport Recife Home

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1

Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1

Sport Recife — winless run (away)10

Sport Recife — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico-MG Win (1)52%

Draw (X)28%

Sport Recife Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 47%

42% +1.5 11%

26% +2.5 0%

5% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 53%

58% -1.5 89%

74% -2.5 100%

95% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58

Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95

Sport Recife — scored (away)0.58

Sport Recife — conceded (away)1.89

Model expected combined goals2.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes38%

No62%

Rate per Team

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%

Sport Recife — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.585%

Under 7.515%

Over 8.576%

Under 8.524%

Over 9.561%

Under 9.539%

Over 10.553%

Under 10.547%

Expected total corners (blended average)11.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico-MG (home)

Corners for7.0

Corners against3.8

Sport Recife (away)

Corners for5.6

Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Sport Recife

12 10 12 8 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico-MG (home)

For2.6

Sport Recife (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6

Sport Recife — total shots (away)12.7

Shots on Target

Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4

Sport Recife — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Sport Recife

Inside the box7.42

Outside the box4.95

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Sport Recife

Derik Lacerda

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target35%

Léo Pereira

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target25%

Chrystian Barletta

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target15%

C. Ortíz

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

I. Ramírez

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09

Sport Recife xG (away)0.97

Average Possession

54.16% Possession 46.24%

Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife

83.87% Pass accuracy 81.37%

451.13 Passes per match 375.95

0.03 Goals prevented 0.15

13.24 Fouls committed 13.63

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 4.13

1.83 Offsides 1.84

15.45 Tackles per match 15.18

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife prediction analysis

Review Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights