Prediction Analysis: Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2025-12-07
19:00
Atletico-MG
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Vasco DA Gama
Away
Prediction Summary
1
45%
X
26%
2
30%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Atletico-MG (Home)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate47%
Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate42%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atletico-MG
WLLDL
Vasco DA Gama
LLWLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
58%
42%
+1.5
32%
26%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
5%
47%
BTTS
42%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.
Atletico-MG averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Vasco DA Gama averages 1.26 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
45%
Draw
26%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2025
Atletico-MG
5 - 0
Vasco DA Gama
Home
Aug 2025
Atletico-MG(A)
1 - 1
Vasco DA Gama
Draw
Dec 2024
Atletico-MG(A)
0 - 2
Vasco DA Gama
Away
Oct 2024
Atletico-MG(A)
1 - 1
Vasco DA Gama
Draw
Oct 2024
Atletico-MG
2 - 1
Vasco DA Gama
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Atletico-MG — unbeaten run (home)1
Atletico-MG — scoring streak (home)1
Vasco DA Gama — winless run (away)4
Vasco DA Gama — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atletico-MG Win (1)45%
Draw (X)26%
Vasco DA Gama Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
58%
42%
+1.5
32%
26%
+2.5
21%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
42%
58%
-1.5
68%
74%
-2.5
79%
95%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
95%
Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atletico-MG — scored (home)1.58
Atletico-MG — conceded (home)0.95
Vasco DA Gama — scored (away)1.26
Vasco DA Gama — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.67
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (home)47%
Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)44.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.589%
Under 4.511%
Over 5.587%
Under 5.513%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atletico-MG (home)
Corners for7.0
Corners against3.8
Vasco DA Gama (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atletico-MG
10
6
11
16
7
Vasco DA Gama
8
12
7
11
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Atletico-MG (home)
For2.6
Vasco DA Gama (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Atletico-MG — total shots (home)17.6
Vasco DA Gama — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Atletico-MG — on target (home)5.4
Vasco DA Gama — on target (away)3.9
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atletico-MG
Inside the box8.32
Outside the box6.76
Vasco DA Gama
Inside the box7.05
Outside the box5.55
Player Shots Atletico-MG
Rony
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target29%
Hulk
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target27%
T. Cuello
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
João Marcelo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Guilherme Arana
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%
Player Shots Vasco DA Gama
Rayan
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target38%
Philippe Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Vegetti
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
Nuno Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG xG (home)1.09
Vasco DA Gama xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
54.16%
Possession
54.58%
Team Comparison Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama
83.87%
Pass accuracy
86.47%
451.13
Passes per match
481
0.03
Goals prevented
-0.15
13.24
Fouls committed
13.18
2.92
Goalkeeper saves
3
1.83
Offsides
0.81
15.45
Tackles per match
13.68
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama prediction analysis
Review Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights