Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-11-08 23:20
Atletico Nacional
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Águilas Doradas
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
25%
2
23%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Atletico Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match2.04
Goals conceded / match0.88
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate56%

Águilas Doradas (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.1
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate50%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico Nacional
LWLDD
Águilas Doradas
LLWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

92% +0.5 60%
60% +1.5 25%
32% +2.5 5%
16% +3.5 5%
4% +4.5 5%
56% BTTS 50%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Atletico Nacional averages 2.04 goals scored at home, while Águilas Doradas averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
25%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 2

Nov 2025 Atletico Nacional 2 - 1 Águilas Doradas Home
May 2025 Atletico Nacional(A) 1 - 2 Águilas Doradas Away

In the last 2 meetings, Atletico Nacional won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Atletico Nacional — unbeaten run (home)12
Atletico Nacional — scoring streak (home)12
Águilas Doradas — winless run (away)1
Águilas Doradas — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico Nacional Win (1)52%
Draw (X)25%
Águilas Doradas Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

92% +0.5 60%
60% +1.5 25%
32% +2.5 5%
16% +3.5 5%
4% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

8% -0.5 40%
40% -1.5 75%
68% -2.5 95%
84% -3.5 95%
96% -4.5 95%

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico Nacional — scored (home)2.04
Atletico Nacional — conceded (home)0.88
Águilas Doradas — scored (away)1
Águilas Doradas — conceded (away)1.1
Model expected combined goals2.55

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Atletico Nacional — BTTS matches (home)56%
Águilas Doradas — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.551%
Under 9.549%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico Nacional (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against3.8

Águilas Doradas (away)

Corners for4.7
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico Nacional
12 8 9 3 9
Águilas Doradas
16 7 12 9 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.594%
Under 2.56%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico Nacional (home)

For2.6

Águilas Doradas (away)

For3.0

Shots per Game

Atletico Nacional — total shots (home)17.8
Águilas Doradas — total shots (away)11.3

Shots on Target

Atletico Nacional — on target (home)6.3
Águilas Doradas — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico Nacional

Inside the box8.73
Outside the box7.02

Águilas Doradas

Inside the box6.5
Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Atletico Nacional

A. Morelos
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Viveros
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Rengifo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Águilas Doradas

Y. González
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Salazar
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target27%
J. Rivaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Lemos
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
W. Morelo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Nacional xG (home)1.17
Águilas Doradas xG (away)1.19

Average Possession

56.51% Possession 47.55%

Team Comparison Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas

83.69% Pass accuracy 77.18%
411.63 Passes per match 329.4
0 Goals prevented 0
11.51 Fouls committed 11.88
2.59 Goalkeeper saves 2.8
1.7 Offsides 1.56
10.58 Tackles per match 12.18

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas prediction analysis

Review Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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