Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Junior

Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-11-27 01:30
Atletico Nacional
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Junior
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
24%
2
23%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Atletico Nacional (Home)

Goals scored / match2.04
Goals conceded / match0.88
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate56%

Junior (Away)

Goals scored / match1.15
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico Nacional
LWLDD
Junior
WWLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

92% +0.5 78%
60% +1.5 26%
32% +2.5 11%
16% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%
56% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.

Atletico Nacional averages 2.04 goals scored at home, while Junior averages 1.15 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
24%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 4

Nov 2025 Atletico Nacional(A) 1 - 2 Junior Away
Nov 2025 Atletico Nacional 1 - 1 Junior Draw
Nov 2025 Atletico Nacional(A) 1 - 2 Junior Away
May 2025 Atletico Nacional 2 - 3 Junior Away

In the last 4 meetings, Atletico Nacional won 0, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Atletico Nacional — unbeaten run (home)12
Atletico Nacional — scoring streak (home)12
Junior — winless run (away)0
Junior — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atletico Nacional Win (1)53%
Draw (X)24%
Junior Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

92% +0.5 78%
60% +1.5 26%
32% +2.5 11%
16% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

8% -0.5 22%
40% -1.5 74%
68% -2.5 89%
84% -3.5 100%
96% -4.5 100%

Atletico Nacional vs Junior — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico Nacional — scored (home)2.04
Atletico Nacional — conceded (home)0.88
Junior — scored (away)1.15
Junior — conceded (away)1.26
Model expected combined goals2.71

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Atletico Nacional — BTTS matches (home)56%
Junior — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.593%
Under 5.57%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.572%
Under 7.528%
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico Nacional (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against3.8

Junior (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico Nacional
12 8 9 3 9
Junior
9 6 7 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico Nacional (home)

For2.6

Junior (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Atletico Nacional — total shots (home)17.8
Junior — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Atletico Nacional — on target (home)6.3
Junior — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico Nacional

Inside the box8.73
Outside the box7.02

Junior

Inside the box7.07
Outside the box4.57

Player Shots Atletico Nacional

A. Morelos
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Viveros
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Rengifo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Junior

B. Castrillón
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Paiva
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target15%
Titi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Enamorado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Nacional xG (home)1.17
Junior xG (away)1.39

Average Possession

56.51% Possession 52.17%

Team Comparison Atletico Nacional vs Junior

83.69% Pass accuracy 78.93%
411.63 Passes per match 379.17
0 Goals prevented 0
11.51 Fouls committed 10.2
2.59 Goalkeeper saves 3.54
1.7 Offsides 1.55
10.58 Tackles per match 12.63

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction analysis

Review Atletico Nacional vs Junior with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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