Prediction Analysis: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-12-14
16:00
Austria Vienna
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Sturm Graz
Away
Prediction Summary
1
16%
X
22%
2
62%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Austria Vienna (Home)
Goals scored / match1.19
Goals conceded / match1.69
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate50%
Sturm Graz (Away)
Goals scored / match2.13
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate31%
BTTS rate56%
Team Form last 5 matches
Austria Vienna
LWWDL
Sturm Graz
WWDDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
69%
+0.5
94%
38%
+1.5
63%
13%
+2.5
31%
0%
+3.5
19%
0%
+4.5
6%
50%
BTTS
56%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Medium.
Austria Vienna averages 1.19 goals scored at home, while Sturm Graz averages 2.13 goals scored away.
Model Strength
62%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
16%
Draw
22%
Away Win
62%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Austria Vienna(A)
1 - 1
Sturm Graz
Draw
Mar 2026
Austria Vienna
2 - 5
Sturm Graz
Away
Dec 2025
Austria Vienna
3 - 1
Sturm Graz
Home
Sep 2025
Austria Vienna(A)
1 - 0
Sturm Graz
Home
Apr 2025
Austria Vienna(A)
1 - 0
Sturm Graz
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Austria Vienna won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Austria Vienna — unbeaten run (home)0
Austria Vienna — scoring streak (home)0
Sturm Graz — winless run (away)0
Sturm Graz — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Austria Vienna Win (1)16%
Draw (X)22%
Sturm Graz Win (2)62%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
69%
+0.5
94%
38%
+1.5
63%
13%
+2.5
31%
0%
+3.5
19%
0%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
31%
-0.5
6%
62%
-1.5
37%
87%
-2.5
69%
100%
-3.5
81%
100%
-4.5
94%
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Austria Vienna — scored (home)1.19
Austria Vienna — conceded (home)1.69
Sturm Graz — scored (away)2.13
Sturm Graz — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals2.69
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Austria Vienna — BTTS matches (home)50%
Sturm Graz — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.597%
Under 6.53%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.572%
Under 8.528%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.531%
Under 10.569%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Austria Vienna (home)
Corners for6.8
Corners against3.3
Sturm Graz (away)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Austria Vienna
5
7
8
9
13
Sturm Graz
12
7
13
9
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Austria Vienna (home)
For1.9
Sturm Graz (away)
For2.7
Shots per Game
Austria Vienna — total shots (home)12.2
Sturm Graz — total shots (away)15.4
Shots on Target
Austria Vienna — on target (home)4.3
Sturm Graz — on target (away)5.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Austria Vienna
Inside the box7.75
Outside the box3.41
Sturm Graz
Inside the box9.91
Outside the box5.78
Player Shots Austria Vienna
M. Malone
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
D. Fitz
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target7%
N. Botić
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Fischer
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Sturm Graz
O. Kiteishvili
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target28%
M. Malone
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Johnston
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Grgić
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Austria Vienna xG (home)1.29
Sturm Graz xG (away)1.68
Average Possession
48.84%
Possession
53.97%
Team Comparison Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
74.19%
Pass accuracy
75.13%
383.31
Passes per match
388.34
0.06
Goals prevented
0.11
11.78
Fouls committed
11.59
2.31
Goalkeeper saves
2.59
2.06
Offsides
1.57
18.41
Tackles per match
17.69
League average xG this season is 1.34 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz prediction analysis
Review Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights