Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Auxerre vs Le Havre

Auxerre vs Le Havre prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2025-05-04 15:15
Auxerre
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Le Havre
Away

Prediction Summary

1
49%
X
25%
2
26%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Auxerre (Home)

Goals scored / match1.41
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate47%

Le Havre (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.76
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Auxerre
LDLWL
Le Havre
WLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 82%
41% +1.5 47%
18% +2.5 12%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.

Auxerre averages 1.41 goals scored at home, while Le Havre averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
49%
Draw
25%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Auxerre(A) 1 - 1 Le Havre Draw
Oct 2025 Auxerre 0 - 1 Le Havre Away
May 2025 Auxerre 1 - 2 Le Havre Away
Sep 2024 Auxerre(A) 1 - 3 Le Havre Away
May 2022 Auxerre(A) 2 - 1 Le Havre Home

In the last 5 meetings, Auxerre won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Auxerre — unbeaten run (home)1
Auxerre — scoring streak (home)4
Le Havre — winless run (away)0
Le Havre — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Auxerre Win (1)49%
Draw (X)25%
Le Havre Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 82%
41% +1.5 47%
18% +2.5 12%
6% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 18%
59% -1.5 53%
82% -2.5 88%
94% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Auxerre vs Le Havre — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Auxerre — scored (home)1.41
Auxerre — conceded (home)1
Le Havre — scored (away)1.47
Le Havre — conceded (away)1.76
Model expected combined goals2.77

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%
No45%

Rate per Team

Auxerre — BTTS matches (home)47%
Le Havre — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Auxerre (home)

Corners for3.6
Corners against6.1

Le Havre (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Auxerre
12 9 9 10 7
Le Havre
10 9 9 11 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Auxerre (home)

For2.0

Le Havre (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Auxerre — total shots (home)11.8
Le Havre — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Auxerre — on target (home)4.4
Le Havre — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Auxerre

Inside the box7.32
Outside the box3.85

Le Havre

Inside the box6.5
Outside the box3.76

Player Shots Auxerre

R. Raveloson
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Perrin
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target18%
K. Danois
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target5%
T. Bair
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Onaiwu
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Le Havre

Y. Salmier
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
I. Soumaré
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Touré
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
Y. Kechta
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target6%
Koka
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Auxerre xG (home)1.23
Le Havre xG (away)1.25

Average Possession

42.47% Possession 42.97%

Team Comparison Auxerre vs Le Havre

78.35% Pass accuracy 80.82%
376.76 Passes per match 372.06
0.1 Goals prevented 0.22
11.88 Fouls committed 11.15
3.76 Goalkeeper saves 3.18
1.41 Offsides 1.56
19.32 Tackles per match 18.24

League average xG this season is 1.51 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Auxerre vs Le Havre prediction analysis

Review Auxerre vs Le Havre with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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