Prediction Analysis: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-09-19
15:00
Auxerre
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Stade Brestois 29
Away
Prediction Summary
1
49%
X
26%
2
24%
+2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
47%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Auxerre (Home)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate35%
Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Goals scored / match0.88
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Auxerre
WWWLD
Stade Brestois 29
DLLLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
53%
+0.5
59%
29%
+1.5
24%
24%
+2.5
6%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
35%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.
Auxerre averages 1.06 goals scored at home, while Stade Brestois 29 averages 0.88 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
49%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Auxerre
3 - 0
Stade Brestois 29
Home
Jan 2026
Auxerre(A)
0 - 2
Stade Brestois 29
Away
Feb 2025
Auxerre(A)
2 - 2
Stade Brestois 29
Draw
Sep 2024
Auxerre
3 - 0
Stade Brestois 29
Home
May 2023
Auxerre(A)
0 - 1
Stade Brestois 29
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Auxerre won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Auxerre — unbeaten run (home)5
Auxerre — scoring streak (home)2
Stade Brestois 29 — winless run (away)5
Stade Brestois 29 — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Auxerre Win (1)49%
Draw (X)26%
Stade Brestois 29 Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
53%
+0.5
59%
29%
+1.5
24%
24%
+2.5
6%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
47%
-0.5
41%
71%
-1.5
76%
76%
-2.5
94%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Auxerre — scored (home)1.06
Auxerre — conceded (home)1
Stade Brestois 29 — scored (away)0.88
Stade Brestois 29 — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals2.41
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Auxerre — BTTS matches (home)35%
Stade Brestois 29 — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)41%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Auxerre (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against4.4
Stade Brestois 29 (away)
Corners for3.1
Corners against7.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Auxerre
14
9
10
11
6
Stade Brestois 29
6
10
15
9
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Auxerre (home)
For1.7
Stade Brestois 29 (away)
For1.9
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.567%
Under 19.533%
Over 22.552%
Under 22.548%
Over 25.539%
Under 25.561%
Expected total shots23.87
Auxerre
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.24
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.71
Stade Brestois 29
Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.538%
Shots Over 13.524%
Expected shots10.62
On Target Over 3.552%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.89
Shots per Game
Auxerre — total shots (home)11.5
Stade Brestois 29 — total shots (away)8.6
Shots on Target
Auxerre — on target (home)3.8
Stade Brestois 29 — on target (away)2.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Auxerre
Inside the box6.94
Outside the box3.76
Stade Brestois 29
Inside the box7.12
Outside the box4.12
Player Shots Auxerre
L. Sinayoko
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target28%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Mara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target7%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Casimir
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Stade Brestois 29
R. Labeau Lascary
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target11%
K. Doumbia
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Ajorque
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Del Castillo
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Le Cardinal
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Auxerre xG (home)1.05
Stade Brestois 29 xG (away)1.33
Average Possession
43.91%
Possession
43.38%
Team Comparison Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29
79.62%
Pass accuracy
78.18%
372.85
Passes per match
376.21
0.08
Goals prevented
0.04
13.74
Fouls committed
12.76
3.29
Goalkeeper saves
3.12
1.45
Offsides
1.36
18.09
Tackles per match
18.32
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction analysis
Review Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights