Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AVS vs Farense

AVS vs Farense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-09-30 19:15
AVS
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
23%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Farense
Away

Prediction Summary

1
63%
X
28%
2
9%
Under 2.5
77%
BTTS No
79%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

AVS (Home)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.44
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate44%

Farense (Away)

Goals scored / match0.88
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

AVS
DWLWL
Farense
LWWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

67% +0.5 59%
17% +1.5 29%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
44% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 23%. Model confidence is High.

AVS averages 0.89 goals scored at home, while Farense averages 0.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength
79%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
63%
Draw
28%
Away Win
9%
Over 2.5
23%
BTTS Yes
21%

Head-to-Head last 2

Mar 2025 AVS(A) 1 - 0 Farense Home
Sep 2024 AVS 0 - 0 Farense Draw

In the last 2 meetings, AVS won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

AVS — unbeaten run (home)1
AVS — scoring streak (home)1
Farense — winless run (away)0
Farense — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AVS Win (1)63%
Draw (X)28%
Farense Win (2)9%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

67% +0.5 59%
17% +1.5 29%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

33% -0.5 41%
83% -1.5 71%
94% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

AVS vs Farense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AVS — scored (home)0.89
AVS — conceded (home)1.44
Farense — scored (away)0.88
Farense — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals1.67

Both Teams To Score

Yes21%
No79%

Rate per Team

AVS — BTTS matches (home)44%
Farense — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)48.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.586%
Under 5.514%
Over 6.578%
Under 6.522%
Over 7.572%
Under 7.528%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

AVS (home)

Corners for3.1
Corners against4.9

Farense (away)

Corners for3.9
Corners against7.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AVS
9 7 6 10 14
Farense
8 5 14 19 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.583%
Under 2.517%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

AVS (home)

For3.3

Farense (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

AVS — total shots (home)10.8
Farense — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

AVS — on target (home)3.2
Farense — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AVS

Inside the box6.03
Outside the box4.17

Farense

Inside the box6.65
Outside the box4.68

Player Shots AVS

Samuel Granada
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
Zé Luís
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
B. Akinsola
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target9%
Vasco Lopes
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
Nenê
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots Farense

M. Belloumi
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target67%
Y. Njie
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target7%
Rony Lopes
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target21%
Darío Poveda
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target5%
Tómané
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AVS xG (home)0.89
Farense xG (away)0.9

Average Possession

42.81% Possession 40.79%

Team Comparison AVS vs Farense

76.78% Pass accuracy 71.71%
347.36 Passes per match 293.85
-0.09 Goals prevented 0.28
14.08 Fouls committed 15.21
3.65 Goalkeeper saves 3.09
1.5 Offsides 1.97
16.25 Tackles per match 17.56

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AVS vs Farense prediction analysis

Review AVS vs Farense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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