Prediction Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eredivisie
2026-08-08
19:00
AZ Alkmaar
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
70%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
ADO Den Haag
Away
Prediction Summary
1
62%
X
19%
2
19%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
65%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
AZ Alkmaar (Home)
Goals scored / match2.29
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate41%
BTTS rate76%
ADO Den Haag (Away)
Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%
Team Form last 5 matches
AZ Alkmaar
DDDDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
0%
71%
+1.5
0%
41%
+2.5
0%
18%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
76%
BTTS
0%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 70%. Model confidence is High.
AZ Alkmaar averages 2.29 goals scored at home, while ADO Den Haag averages 0 goals scored away.
Model Strength
70%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
62%
Draw
19%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
65%
Head-to-Head last 4
Jan 2021
AZ Alkmaar
2 - 1
ADO Den Haag
Home
Oct 2020
AZ Alkmaar(A)
2 - 2
ADO Den Haag
Draw
Mar 2020
AZ Alkmaar
4 - 0
ADO Den Haag
Home
Sep 2019
AZ Alkmaar(A)
1 - 0
ADO Den Haag
Home
In the last 4 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
AZ Alkmaar — unbeaten run (home)7
AZ Alkmaar — scoring streak (home)17
1X2 Probability model
AZ Alkmaar Win (1)62%
Draw (X)19%
ADO Den Haag Win (2)19%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
0%
71%
+1.5
0%
41%
+2.5
0%
18%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
100%
29%
-1.5
100%
59%
-2.5
100%
82%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
AZ Alkmaar — scored (home)2.29
AZ Alkmaar — conceded (home)1.53
ADO Den Haag — scored (away)0
ADO Den Haag — conceded (away)0
Model expected combined goals3.63
Both Teams To Score
Yes65%
No35%
Rate per Team
AZ Alkmaar — BTTS matches (home)76%
ADO Den Haag — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)38%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
AZ Alkmaar (home)
Corners for5.9
Corners against4.4
ADO Den Haag (away)
Corners for—
Corners against—
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
AZ Alkmaar
12
15
7
10
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.547%
Under 0.553%
Over 1.541%
Under 1.559%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2
Yellow Cards per Team
AZ Alkmaar (home)
For1.6
ADO Den Haag (away)
For—
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.576%
Under 19.524%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.81
AZ Alkmaar
Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.571%
Shots Over 13.558%
Expected shots15.38
On Target Over 3.576%
On Target Over 4.562%
On Target Over 5.549%
Expected on target5.78
ADO Den Haag
Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.43
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.537%
On Target Over 5.524%
Expected on target4.00
Shots per Game
AZ Alkmaar — total shots (home)16.2
ADO Den Haag — total shots (away)—
Shots on Target
AZ Alkmaar — on target (home)6.4
ADO Den Haag — on target (away)—
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
AZ Alkmaar
Inside the box10.35
Outside the box5.41
ADO Den Haag
Inside the box-
Outside the box-
Player Shots AZ Alkmaar
T. Parrott
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target43%
S. Mijnans
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Meerdink
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target21%
Weslley Patati
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
I. Sadiq
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots ADO Den Haag
Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
AZ Alkmaar xG (home)1.88
ADO Den Haag xG (away)-
Average Possession
53.18%
Possession
-%
Team Comparison AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag
81.85%
Pass accuracy
0%
457.76
Passes per match
-
-0.09
Goals prevented
-
10.21
Fouls committed
-
3.06
Goalkeeper saves
-
1.22
Offsides
-
17.85
Tackles per match
-
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag prediction analysis
Review AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights