Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham

AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-03-06 17:45
AZ Alkmaar
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
69%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Tottenham
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
21%
2
28%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS Yes
68%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

AZ Alkmaar (Home)

Goals scored / match2.17
Goals conceded / match0.83
Over 2.5 rate50%
BTTS rate67%

Tottenham (Away)

Goals scored / match1.57
Goals conceded / match1.14
Over 2.5 rate14%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

AZ Alkmaar
LWDWL
Tottenham
WWWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 86%
50% +1.5 57%
50% +2.5 14%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
67% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 69%. Model confidence is Medium.

AZ Alkmaar averages 2.17 goals scored at home, while Tottenham averages 1.57 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
21%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS Yes
68%

Head-to-Head last 3

Mar 2025 AZ Alkmaar(A) 1 - 3 Tottenham Away
Mar 2025 AZ Alkmaar 1 - 0 Tottenham Home
Oct 2024 AZ Alkmaar(A) 0 - 1 Tottenham Away

In the last 3 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 1, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

AZ Alkmaar — unbeaten run (home)6
AZ Alkmaar — scoring streak (home)6
Tottenham — winless run (away)0
Tottenham — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AZ Alkmaar Win (1)51%
Draw (X)21%
Tottenham Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 86%
50% +1.5 57%
50% +2.5 14%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 14%
50% -1.5 43%
50% -2.5 86%
83% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AZ Alkmaar — scored (home)2.17
AZ Alkmaar — conceded (home)0.83
Tottenham — scored (away)1.57
Tottenham — conceded (away)1.14
Model expected combined goals3.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes68%
No32%

Rate per Team

AZ Alkmaar — BTTS matches (home)67%
Tottenham — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)62%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.5100%
Under 6.50%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.552%
Under 8.548%
Over 9.536%
Under 9.564%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

AZ Alkmaar (home)

Corners for5.8
Corners against2.0

Tottenham (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AZ Alkmaar
10 8 13 9 7
Tottenham
12 15 14 11 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

AZ Alkmaar (home)

For2.7

Tottenham (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

AZ Alkmaar — total shots (home)12.5
Tottenham — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

AZ Alkmaar — on target (home)5.3
Tottenham — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AZ Alkmaar

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box4.75

Tottenham

Inside the box9.4
Outside the box3.53

Player Shots AZ Alkmaar

R. van Bommel
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
K. Belić
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Mijnans
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target20%
E. Poku
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target30%
D. Kasius
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Tottenham

W. Lankshear
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Moore
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
W. Odobert
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
P. Sarr
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Johnson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AZ Alkmaar xG (home)1.83
Tottenham xG (away)1.66

Average Possession

46.42% Possession 50.93%

Team Comparison AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham

79.42% Pass accuracy 83.07%
424.67 Passes per match 466.53
-0.3 Goals prevented 0.33
14.67 Fouls committed 10.67
2.67 Goalkeeper saves 3.13
2.17 Offsides 1.4
18.08 Tackles per match 15.33

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham prediction analysis

Review AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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