What markets are included in the Bahia vs Ceara prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Bahia vs Ceara prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Bahia vs Ceara

Bahia vs Ceara prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2025-04-21 23:00

Bahia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

37%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Ceara

Away

Prediction Summary

54%

27%

19%

Under 2.5

63%

BTTS No

60%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Bahia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

Ceara (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match1.16

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bahia

LWDWL

Ceara

LLDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 53%

53% +1.5 21%

16% +2.5 0%

5% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bahia averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Ceara averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Over 2.5

37%

BTTS Yes

40%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Bahia(A) 1 - 1 Ceara Draw

Apr 2025 Bahia 1 - 0 Ceara Home

Oct 2021 Bahia 1 - 1 Ceara Draw

Jun 2021 Bahia(A) 2 - 1 Ceara Home

Dec 2020 Bahia 0 - 2 Ceara Away

In the last 5 meetings, Bahia won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Bahia — unbeaten run (home)2

Bahia — scoring streak (home)19

Ceara — winless run (away)2

Ceara — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bahia Win (1)54%

Draw (X)27%

Ceara Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 53%

53% +1.5 21%

16% +2.5 0%

5% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 47%

47% -1.5 79%

84% -2.5 100%

95% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Bahia vs Ceara — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bahia — scored (home)1.74

Bahia — conceded (home)0.74

Ceara — scored (away)0.74

Ceara — conceded (away)1.16

Model expected combined goals2.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%

No60%

Rate per Team

Bahia — BTTS matches (home)47%

Ceara — BTTS matches (away)37%

Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.577%

Under 6.523%

Over 7.563%

Under 7.537%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bahia (home)

Corners for5.3

Corners against3.4

Ceara (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Ceara

8 18 13 7 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.595%

Under 2.55%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Bahia (home)

For2.2

Ceara (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Bahia — total shots (home)15.9

Ceara — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Bahia — on target (home)5.6

Ceara — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Ceara

Inside the box6.87

Outside the box4.95

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Ceara

Pedro Raul

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target38%

Éder

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

Pedro Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target7%

A. Galeano

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target8%

Vina

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target31%

+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia xG (home)1.37

Ceara xG (away)0.96

Average Possession

55.26% Possession 42.03%

Team Comparison Bahia vs Ceara

85.92% Pass accuracy 79.03%

468.39 Passes per match 330.84

-0.11 Goals prevented 0.17

12.32 Fouls committed 13.61

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.97

1.25 Offsides 2.42

15.87 Tackles per match 15.84

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bahia vs Ceara prediction analysis

Review Bahia vs Ceara with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights