Prediction Analysis: Bahia vs Corinthians
Bahia vs Corinthians prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-26
19:00
Bahia
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Bahia
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Corinthians
Away
Prediction Summary
1
59%
X
24%
2
17%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Bahia (Home)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match0.7
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate45%
Corinthians (Away)
Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Bahia
DWLWD
Corinthians
WDLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
68%
55%
+1.5
5%
15%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
45%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.
Bahia averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Corinthians averages 0.79 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
59%
Draw
24%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
Head-to-Head last 5
Aug 2025
Bahia(A)
2 - 1
Corinthians
Home
Mar 2025
Bahia
1 - 1
Corinthians
Draw
Dec 2024
Bahia(A)
0 - 3
Corinthians
Away
Jul 2024
Bahia
0 - 1
Corinthians
Away
Nov 2023
Bahia(A)
5 - 1
Corinthians
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Bahia won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Bahia — unbeaten run (home)3
Bahia — scoring streak (home)20
Corinthians — winless run (away)3
Corinthians — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Bahia Win (1)59%
Draw (X)24%
Corinthians Win (2)17%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
68%
55%
+1.5
5%
15%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
32%
45%
-1.5
95%
85%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Bahia vs Corinthians — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Bahia — scored (home)1.75
Bahia — conceded (home)0.7
Corinthians — scored (away)0.79
Corinthians — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.38
Both Teams To Score
Yes42%
No58%
Rate per Team
Bahia — BTTS matches (home)45%
Corinthians — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)49%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Bahia (home)
Corners for5.3
Corners against3.4
Corinthians (away)
Corners for4.0
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Bahia
12
11
8
9
15
Corinthians
12
12
7
11
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6
Yellow Cards per Team
Bahia (home)
For2.2
Corinthians (away)
For3.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.548%
Under 25.552%
Expected total shots25.80
Bahia
Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.34
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.10
Corinthians
Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.537%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots10.46
On Target Over 3.544%
On Target Over 4.527%
On Target Over 5.515%
Expected on target3.45
Shots per Game
Bahia — total shots (home)15.9
Corinthians — total shots (away)9.4
Shots on Target
Bahia — on target (home)5.6
Corinthians — on target (away)2.9
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Bahia
Inside the box8.42
Outside the box5.45
Corinthians
Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.13
Player Shots Bahia
Willian José
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target18%
Erick Pulga
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target22%
Ademir
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Rodrigo Nestor
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Corinthians
Yuri Alberto
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target30%
M. Depay
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target26%
Igor Coronado
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gustavo Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
Vitinho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia xG (home)1.37
Corinthians xG (away)1.31
Average Possession
55.26%
Possession
55.74%
Team Comparison Bahia vs Corinthians
85.92%
Pass accuracy
84.82%
468.39
Passes per match
467.61
-0.11
Goals prevented
0.03
12.32
Fouls committed
13.95
2.92
Goalkeeper saves
2.43
1.25
Offsides
1.79
15.79
Tackles per match
15.85
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Bahia vs Corinthians prediction analysis
Review Bahia vs Corinthians with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights