What markets are included in the Bahia vs Cruzeiro prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Bahia vs Cruzeiro prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Bahia vs Cruzeiro

Bahia vs Cruzeiro prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-09-15 23:00

Bahia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

38%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Cruzeiro

Away

Prediction Summary

41%

29%

31%

Under 2.5

62%

BTTS No

56%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Bahia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

Cruzeiro (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate32%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bahia

LWDWL

Cruzeiro

LDDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 58%

53% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 32%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 38%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bahia averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Cruzeiro averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength

62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

41%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Over 2.5

38%

BTTS Yes

44%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Bahia 1 - 2 Cruzeiro Away

Apr 2025 Bahia(A) 0 - 3 Cruzeiro Away

Oct 2024 Bahia(A) 1 - 1 Cruzeiro Draw

Jun 2024 Bahia 4 - 1 Cruzeiro Home

Oct 2023 Bahia(A) 0 - 3 Cruzeiro Away

In the last 5 meetings, Bahia won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Bahia — unbeaten run (home)2

Bahia — scoring streak (home)19

Cruzeiro — winless run (away)3

Cruzeiro — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bahia Win (1)41%

Draw (X)29%

Cruzeiro Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 58%

53% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 42%

47% -1.5 68%

84% -2.5 89%

95% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Bahia vs Cruzeiro — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bahia — scored (home)1.74

Bahia — conceded (home)0.74

Cruzeiro — scored (away)1.05

Cruzeiro — conceded (away)0.89

Model expected combined goals2.2

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%

No56%

Rate per Team

Bahia — BTTS matches (home)47%

Cruzeiro — BTTS matches (away)32%

Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%

Under 4.510%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.561%

Under 9.539%

Over 10.555%

Under 10.545%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bahia (home)

Corners for5.3

Corners against3.4

Cruzeiro (away)

Corners for5.0

Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Cruzeiro

12 12 13 8 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.595%

Under 2.55%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Bahia (home)

For2.2

Cruzeiro (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Bahia — total shots (home)15.9

Cruzeiro — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Bahia — on target (home)5.6

Cruzeiro — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Cruzeiro

Inside the box7.76

Outside the box5.82

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target79%

+1.5 On Target33%

K. Arroyo

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target25%

Matheus Pereira

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target21%

Gabriel Barbosa

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target17%

Christian

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia xG (home)1.37

Cruzeiro xG (away)1.27

Average Possession

55.26% Possession 47.87%

Team Comparison Bahia vs Cruzeiro

85.92% Pass accuracy 81.05%

468.39 Passes per match 363.13

-0.11 Goals prevented 0.12

12.32 Fouls committed 13.66

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.18

1.25 Offsides 1.5

15.87 Tackles per match 16.32

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bahia vs Cruzeiro prediction analysis

Review Bahia vs Cruzeiro with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights