What markets are included in the Bahia vs Fortaleza EC prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Bahia vs Fortaleza EC prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Bahia vs Fortaleza EC

Bahia vs Fortaleza EC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2025-11-20 21:00

Bahia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

47%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Fortaleza EC

Away

Prediction Summary

61%

23%

16%

Under 2.5

53%

BTTS No

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Bahia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

Fortaleza EC (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05

Goals conceded / match1.84

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bahia

LWDWL

Fortaleza EC

LWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 74%

53% +1.5 21%

16% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bahia averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Fortaleza EC averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength

61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Over 2.5

47%

BTTS Yes

45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Bahia 2 - 3 Fortaleza EC Away

Jul 2025 Bahia(A) 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC Draw

Sep 2024 Bahia(A) 1 - 4 Fortaleza EC Away

Jun 2024 Bahia 1 - 0 Fortaleza EC Home

Oct 2023 Bahia 2 - 0 Fortaleza EC Home

In the last 5 meetings, Bahia won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Bahia — unbeaten run (home)2

Bahia — scoring streak (home)19

Fortaleza EC — winless run (away)1

Fortaleza EC — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bahia Win (1)61%

Draw (X)23%

Fortaleza EC Win (2)16%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 74%

53% +1.5 21%

16% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 26%

47% -1.5 79%

84% -2.5 89%

95% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Bahia vs Fortaleza EC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bahia — scored (home)1.74

Bahia — conceded (home)0.74

Fortaleza EC — scored (away)1.05

Fortaleza EC — conceded (away)1.84

Model expected combined goals2.56

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%

No55%

Rate per Team

Bahia — BTTS matches (home)47%

Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (away)68%

Combined (simple average)57.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%

Under 4.510%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.561%

Under 8.539%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.542%

Under 10.558%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bahia (home)

Corners for5.3

Corners against3.4

Fortaleza EC (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Fortaleza EC

12 11 11 7 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.584%

Under 2.516%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Bahia (home)

For2.2

Fortaleza EC (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Bahia — total shots (home)15.9

Fortaleza EC — total shots (away)10.5

Shots on Target

Bahia — on target (home)5.6

Fortaleza EC — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Fortaleza EC

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box5.26

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Fortaleza EC

A. Bareiro

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target19%

Breno Lopes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target9%

J. Herrera

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target11%

T. Pochettino

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target19%

Deyverson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia xG (home)1.37

Fortaleza EC xG (away)1.19

Average Possession

55.26% Possession 44.18%

Team Comparison Bahia vs Fortaleza EC

85.92% Pass accuracy 79.24%

468.39 Passes per match 354.39

-0.11 Goals prevented 0.01

12.32 Fouls committed 14.18

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.63

1.25 Offsides 2.06

15.87 Tackles per match 17.79

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bahia vs Fortaleza EC prediction analysis

Review Bahia vs Fortaleza EC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights