What markets are included in the Bahia vs Gremio prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Bahia vs Gremio prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Bahia vs Gremio

Bahia vs Gremio prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-19 23:30

Bahia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

46%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-0

Gremio

Away

Prediction Summary

53%

25%

22%

Under 2.5

54%

BTTS No

52%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Bahia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

Gremio (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21

Goals conceded / match1.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bahia

LWDWL

Gremio

WLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 68%

53% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 16%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Bahia averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Gremio averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength

54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

53%

Draw

25%

Away Win

22%

Over 2.5

46%

BTTS Yes

48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Bahia 4 - 0 Gremio Home

May 2025 Bahia(A) 0 - 1 Gremio Away

Aug 2024 Bahia(A) 2 - 0 Gremio Home

Apr 2024 Bahia 1 - 0 Gremio Home

Nov 2023 Bahia(A) 0 - 1 Gremio Away

In the last 5 meetings, Bahia won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Bahia — unbeaten run (home)2

Bahia — scoring streak (home)19

Gremio — winless run (away)0

Gremio — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bahia Win (1)53%

Draw (X)25%

Gremio Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 68%

53% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 16%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 32%

47% -1.5 68%

84% -2.5 84%

95% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Bahia vs Gremio — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bahia — scored (home)1.74

Bahia — conceded (home)0.74

Gremio — scored (away)1.21

Gremio — conceded (away)1.74

Model expected combined goals2.51

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%

No52%

Rate per Team

Bahia — BTTS matches (home)47%

Gremio — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.558%

Under 8.542%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.542%

Under 10.558%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bahia (home)

Corners for5.3

Corners against3.4

Gremio (away)

Corners for3.7

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Gremio

8 8 8 10 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.5100%

Under 2.50%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Bahia (home)

For2.2

Gremio (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Bahia — total shots (home)15.9

Gremio — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Bahia — on target (home)5.6

Gremio — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Gremio

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target36%

M. Braithwaite

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Amuzu

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

André Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Arezo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia xG (home)1.37

Gremio xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

55.26% Possession 45.16%

Team Comparison Bahia vs Gremio

85.92% Pass accuracy 82.32%

468.39 Passes per match 379.66

-0.11 Goals prevented 0.22

12.32 Fouls committed 13.37

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 3.41

1.25 Offsides 1.08

15.87 Tackles per match 17.37

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bahia vs Gremio prediction analysis

Review Bahia vs Gremio with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights