What markets are included in the Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama

Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-23 19:00

Bahia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

54%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Vasco DA Gama

Away

Prediction Summary

51%

24%

25%

Over 2.5

54%

BTTS Yes

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Bahia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match0.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

Vasco DA Gama (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match1.79

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bahia

LWDWL

Vasco DA Gama

LLWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 58%

53% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 21%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 5%

47% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bahia averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Vasco DA Gama averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength

55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

51%

Draw

24%

Away Win

25%

Over 2.5

54%

BTTS Yes

55%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Bahia 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama Home

Sep 2025 Bahia(A) 1 - 3 Vasco DA Gama Away

Oct 2024 Bahia(A) 2 - 3 Vasco DA Gama Away

Jun 2024 Bahia 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama Home

Sep 2023 Bahia 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Bahia won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Bahia — unbeaten run (home)2

Bahia — scoring streak (home)19

Vasco DA Gama — winless run (away)4

Vasco DA Gama — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bahia Win (1)51%

Draw (X)24%

Vasco DA Gama Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 58%

53% +1.5 32%

16% +2.5 21%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 42%

47% -1.5 68%

84% -2.5 79%

95% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 95%

Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bahia — scored (home)1.74

Bahia — conceded (home)0.74

Vasco DA Gama — scored (away)1.26

Vasco DA Gama — conceded (away)1.79

Model expected combined goals2.82

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%

No45%

Rate per Team

Bahia — BTTS matches (home)47%

Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.587%

Under 4.513%

Over 5.582%

Under 5.518%

Over 6.574%

Under 6.526%

Over 7.563%

Under 7.537%

Over 8.545%

Under 8.555%

Over 9.542%

Under 9.558%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (blended average)8.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bahia (home)

Corners for5.3

Corners against3.4

Vasco DA Gama (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Vasco DA Gama

8 12 7 11 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Bahia (home)

For2.2

Vasco DA Gama (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Bahia — total shots (home)15.9

Vasco DA Gama — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Bahia — on target (home)5.6

Vasco DA Gama — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Vasco DA Gama

Inside the box7.05

Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Vasco DA Gama

Rayan

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target74%

+1.5 On Target38%

Philippe Coutinho

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

P. Vegetti

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target17%

A. Gómez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target19%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia xG (home)1.37

Vasco DA Gama xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

55.26% Possession 54.58%

Team Comparison Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama

85.92% Pass accuracy 86.47%

468.39 Passes per match 481

-0.11 Goals prevented -0.15

12.32 Fouls committed 13.18

2.92 Goalkeeper saves 3

1.25 Offsides 0.81

15.87 Tackles per match 13.68

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama prediction analysis

Review Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights