What markets are included in the Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Barcelona vs Villarreal

Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-05-18 17:00

Barcelona

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

61%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Villarreal

Away

Prediction Summary

57%

22%

Over 2.5

61%

BTTS Yes

60%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Barcelona (Home)

Goals scored / match2.74

Goals conceded / match1.05

Over 2.5 rate47%

BTTS rate58%

Villarreal (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match1.26

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Barcelona

WLWWW

Villarreal

WWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 74%

58% +1.5 53%

47% +2.5 11%

37% +3.5 5%

16% +4.5 5%

58% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Barcelona averages 2.74 goals scored at home, while Villarreal averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

57%

Draw

22%

Away Win

22%

Over 2.5

61%

BTTS Yes

60%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Barcelona 4 - 1 Villarreal Home

Dec 2025 Barcelona(A) 2 - 0 Villarreal Home

May 2025 Barcelona 2 - 3 Villarreal Away

Sep 2024 Barcelona(A) 5 - 1 Villarreal Home

Jan 2024 Barcelona 3 - 5 Villarreal Away

In the last 5 meetings, Barcelona won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Barcelona — unbeaten run (home)0

Barcelona — scoring streak (home)12

Villarreal — winless run (away)0

Villarreal — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Barcelona Win (1)57%

Draw (X)22%

Villarreal Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 74%

58% +1.5 53%

47% +2.5 11%

37% +3.5 5%

16% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 26%

42% -1.5 47%

53% -2.5 89%

63% -3.5 95%

84% -4.5 95%

Barcelona vs Villarreal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Barcelona — scored (home)2.74

Barcelona — conceded (home)1.05

Villarreal — scored (away)1.47

Villarreal — conceded (away)1.26

Model expected combined goals3.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%

No40%

Rate per Team

Barcelona — BTTS matches (home)58%

Villarreal — BTTS matches (away)63%

Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.569%

Under 8.531%

Over 9.561%

Under 9.539%

Over 10.547%

Under 10.553%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Barcelona (home)

Corners for8.5

Corners against2.9

Villarreal (away)

Corners for4.4

Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Barcelona

12 12 6 14 8

Villarreal

10 8 9 14 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.585%

Under 1.515%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Barcelona (home)

For1.4

Villarreal (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Barcelona — total shots (home)20.5

Villarreal — total shots (away)12.8

Shots on Target

Barcelona — on target (home)7.5

Villarreal — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Barcelona

Inside the box11.45

Outside the box6.37

Villarreal

Inside the box10.32

Outside the box3.84

Player Shots Barcelona

Raphinha

Shots on Target/Game1.9

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target25%

R. Lewandowski

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target76%

+1.5 On Target44%

Lamine Yamal

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target80%

+1.5 On Target26%

J. Koundé

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target3%

Dani Olmo

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target16%

Player Shots Villarreal

Pau Cabanes

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target10%

+1.5 On Target10%

Gerard Moreno

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target18%

A. Danjuma

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target33%

Ayoze Pérez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Barry

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target51%

+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Barcelona xG (home)2.34

Villarreal xG (away)1.74

Average Possession

69.08% Possession 47.55%

Team Comparison Barcelona vs Villarreal

88.45% Pass accuracy 82.89%

632.84 Passes per match 427.08

-0.04 Goals prevented -0.22

9.68 Fouls committed 11.63

1.87 Goalkeeper saves 3

1.76 Offsides 2.2

14.16 Tackles per match 17.05

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction analysis

Review Barcelona vs Villarreal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights