Prediction Analysis: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Süper Lig
2026-08-30
17:00
Başakşehir
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Kasımpaşa
Away
Prediction Summary
1
57%
X
23%
2
21%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Başakşehir (Home)
Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%
Kasımpaşa (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.76
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Başakşehir
WWLWD
Kasımpaşa
WLDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
88%
+0.5
71%
59%
+1.5
29%
29%
+2.5
6%
12%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
59%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
Başakşehir averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Kasımpaşa averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
57%
Draw
23%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Başakşehir
4 - 0
Kasımpaşa
Home
Nov 2025
Başakşehir(A)
3 - 1
Kasımpaşa
Home
May 2025
Başakşehir(A)
3 - 2
Kasımpaşa
Home
Dec 2024
Başakşehir
2 - 2
Kasımpaşa
Draw
May 2024
Başakşehir
4 - 1
Kasımpaşa
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Başakşehir won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Başakşehir — unbeaten run (home)6
Başakşehir — scoring streak (home)3
Kasımpaşa — winless run (away)10
Kasımpaşa — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Başakşehir Win (1)57%
Draw (X)23%
Kasımpaşa Win (2)21%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
88%
+0.5
71%
59%
+1.5
29%
29%
+2.5
6%
12%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
12%
-0.5
29%
41%
-1.5
71%
71%
-2.5
94%
88%
-3.5
100%
94%
-4.5
100%
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Başakşehir — scored (home)1.94
Başakşehir — conceded (home)1
Kasımpaşa — scored (away)1.06
Kasımpaşa — conceded (away)1.76
Model expected combined goals2.88
Both Teams To Score
Yes54%
No46%
Rate per Team
Başakşehir — BTTS matches (home)59%
Kasımpaşa — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)62%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.536%
Under 10.564%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Başakşehir (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against4.5
Kasımpaşa (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Başakşehir
13
8
12
7
9
Kasımpaşa
7
8
11
9
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Başakşehir (home)
For2.2
Kasımpaşa (away)
For3.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.59
Başakşehir
Shots Over 9.579%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.05
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.04
Kasımpaşa
Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.538%
Shots Over 13.523%
Expected shots10.54
On Target Over 3.544%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.48
Shots per Game
Başakşehir — total shots (home)13.4
Kasımpaşa — total shots (away)7.7
Shots on Target
Başakşehir — on target (home)5.1
Kasımpaşa — on target (away)2.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Başakşehir
Inside the box9.41
Outside the box4.09
Kasımpaşa
Inside the box5.5
Outside the box4.06
Player Shots Başakşehir
E. Shomurodov
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target82%
+1.5 On Target41%
Y. Sarı
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target24%
D. Selke
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target21%
A. Fayzullaev
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target10%
B. Yıldırım
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Kasımpaşa
A. Benedyczak
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target36%
H. Hajradinović
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
P. Guèye
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target4%
İ. Kahveci
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target19%
Cláudio Winck
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Başakşehir xG (home)1.58
Kasımpaşa xG (away)0.89
Average Possession
54.44%
Possession
44.44%
Team Comparison Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa
83.5%
Pass accuracy
76.26%
435.29
Passes per match
338.41
0.06
Goals prevented
-0.04
13.35
Fouls committed
15.5
3.12
Goalkeeper saves
2.94
1.36
Offsides
1.39
12.82
Tackles per match
15.03
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa prediction analysis
Review Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Süper Lig.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Süper Lig
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights