Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-11-29 17:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
56%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Borussia Dortmund
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
24%
2
25%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bayer Leverkusen (Home)

Goals scored / match2.24
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate65%

Borussia Dortmund (Away)

Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bayer Leverkusen
DLWWL
Borussia Dortmund
WWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 94%
47% +1.5 65%
29% +2.5 18%
24% +3.5 0%
12% +4.5 0%
65% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 56%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bayer Leverkusen averages 2.24 goals scored at home, while Borussia Dortmund averages 1.76 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
24%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
57%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Bayer Leverkusen(A) 1 - 0 Borussia Dortmund Home
Dec 2025 Bayer Leverkusen(A) 1 - 0 Borussia Dortmund Home
Nov 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund Away
May 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 4 Borussia Dortmund Away
Jan 2025 Bayer Leverkusen(A) 3 - 2 Borussia Dortmund Home

In the last 5 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Bayer Leverkusen — unbeaten run (home)2
Bayer Leverkusen — scoring streak (home)17
Borussia Dortmund — winless run (away)0
Borussia Dortmund — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bayer Leverkusen Win (1)51%
Draw (X)24%
Borussia Dortmund Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 94%
47% +1.5 65%
29% +2.5 18%
24% +3.5 0%
12% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 6%
53% -1.5 35%
71% -2.5 82%
76% -3.5 100%
88% -4.5 100%

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bayer Leverkusen — scored (home)2.24
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (home)1.12
Borussia Dortmund — scored (away)1.76
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (away)1.06
Model expected combined goals2.92

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%
No43%

Rate per Team

Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (home)65%
Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)62%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.536%
Under 10.564%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bayer Leverkusen (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against3.3

Borussia Dortmund (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bayer Leverkusen
15 7 10 13 11
Borussia Dortmund
7 5 2 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Bayer Leverkusen (home)

For1.9

Borussia Dortmund (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (home)18.6
Borussia Dortmund — total shots (away)11.4

Shots on Target

Bayer Leverkusen — on target (home)6.5
Borussia Dortmund — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bayer Leverkusen

Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5.38

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box9.68
Outside the box3.38

Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen

P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target46%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%
Christian Kofane
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target21%
I. Maza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Tella
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target27%
S. Inacio
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Beier
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target19%
J. Brandt
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bayer Leverkusen xG (home)1.93
Borussia Dortmund xG (away)1.88

Average Possession

59.18% Possession 53.24%

Team Comparison Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund

87.68% Pass accuracy 83.21%
605.44 Passes per match 493.21
0.16 Goals prevented 0.14
8.59 Fouls committed 11.71
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 2.62
1.34 Offsides 1.18
14.06 Tackles per match 14.44

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction analysis

Review Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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