Prediction Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2024-12-07
14:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
66%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC St. Pauli
Away
Prediction Summary
1
48%
X
22%
2
30%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS Yes
66%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Bayer Leverkusen (Home)
Goals scored / match2.12
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate65%
FC St. Pauli (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate41%
Team Form last 5 matches
Bayer Leverkusen
DLDWD
FC St. Pauli
LDLDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
65%
71%
+1.5
35%
35%
+2.5
6%
18%
+3.5
0%
12%
+4.5
0%
65%
BTTS
41%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 66%. Model confidence is Medium.
Bayer Leverkusen averages 2.12 goals scored at home, while FC St. Pauli averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
66%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
48%
Draw
22%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS Yes
66%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
4 - 0
FC St. Pauli
Home
Feb 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
3 - 0
FC St. Pauli
Home
Sep 2025
Bayer Leverkusen(A)
2 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Home
Apr 2025
Bayer Leverkusen(A)
1 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Draw
Dec 2024
Bayer Leverkusen
2 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Bayer Leverkusen — unbeaten run (home)0
Bayer Leverkusen — scoring streak (home)2
FC St. Pauli — winless run (away)2
FC St. Pauli — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Bayer Leverkusen Win (1)48%
Draw (X)22%
FC St. Pauli Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
65%
71%
+1.5
35%
35%
+2.5
6%
18%
+3.5
0%
12%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
35%
29%
-1.5
65%
65%
-2.5
94%
82%
-3.5
100%
88%
-4.5
100%
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Bayer Leverkusen — scored (home)2.12
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (home)1.29
FC St. Pauli — scored (away)1.06
FC St. Pauli — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals3.42
Both Teams To Score
Yes66%
No34%
Rate per Team
Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (home)65%
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Bayer Leverkusen (home)
Corners for7.6
Corners against2.7
FC St. Pauli (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Bayer Leverkusen
8
10
5
12
11
FC St. Pauli
8
4
8
4
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Bayer Leverkusen (home)
For1.9
FC St. Pauli (away)
For1.9
Shots per Game
Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (home)17.4
FC St. Pauli — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Bayer Leverkusen — on target (home)6.5
FC St. Pauli — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Bayer Leverkusen
Inside the box9.97
Outside the box4.79
FC St. Pauli
Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09
Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen
V. Boniface
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target37%
P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target26%
F. Wirtz
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target45%
E. Palacios
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots FC St. Pauli
J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayer Leverkusen xG (home)1.69
FC St. Pauli xG (away)1.03
Average Possession
59.44%
Possession
43.97%
Team Comparison Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli
86.12%
Pass accuracy
78.09%
589.47
Passes per match
406.94
-0.11
Goals prevented
0.21
9.56
Fouls committed
10.38
2.85
Goalkeeper saves
2.97
1.94
Offsides
1.97
11.68
Tackles per match
15.91
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli prediction analysis
Review Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights