Prediction Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel
Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2024-10-05
13:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
70%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Holstein Kiel
Away
Prediction Summary
1
56%
X
20%
2
24%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
67%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Bayer Leverkusen (Home)
Goals scored / match2.12
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate65%
Holstein Kiel (Away)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match2.29
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate88%
Team Form last 5 matches
Bayer Leverkusen
DLDWD
Holstein Kiel
LLWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
94%
71%
+1.5
41%
35%
+2.5
12%
18%
+3.5
0%
12%
+4.5
0%
65%
BTTS
88%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 70%. Model confidence is Medium.
Bayer Leverkusen averages 2.12 goals scored at home, while Holstein Kiel averages 1.47 goals scored away.
Model Strength
70%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
56%
Draw
20%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
67%
Head-to-Head last 2
Feb 2025
Bayer Leverkusen(A)
2 - 0
Holstein Kiel
Home
Oct 2024
Bayer Leverkusen
2 - 2
Holstein Kiel
Draw
In the last 2 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Bayer Leverkusen — unbeaten run (home)0
Bayer Leverkusen — scoring streak (home)2
Holstein Kiel — winless run (away)1
Holstein Kiel — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Bayer Leverkusen Win (1)56%
Draw (X)20%
Holstein Kiel Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
94%
71%
+1.5
41%
35%
+2.5
12%
18%
+3.5
0%
12%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
6%
29%
-1.5
59%
65%
-2.5
88%
82%
-3.5
100%
88%
-4.5
100%
Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Bayer Leverkusen — scored (home)2.12
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (home)1.29
Holstein Kiel — scored (away)1.47
Holstein Kiel — conceded (away)2.29
Model expected combined goals3.59
Both Teams To Score
Yes67%
No33%
Rate per Team
Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (home)65%
Holstein Kiel — BTTS matches (away)88%
Combined (simple average)76.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.597%
Under 5.53%
Over 6.586%
Under 6.514%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.550%
Under 10.550%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Bayer Leverkusen (home)
Corners for7.6
Corners against2.7
Holstein Kiel (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against7.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Bayer Leverkusen
8
10
5
12
11
Holstein Kiel
16
15
12
7
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Bayer Leverkusen (home)
For1.9
Holstein Kiel (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (home)17.4
Holstein Kiel — total shots (away)10.7
Shots on Target
Bayer Leverkusen — on target (home)6.5
Holstein Kiel — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Bayer Leverkusen
Inside the box9.97
Outside the box4.79
Holstein Kiel
Inside the box7.21
Outside the box3.76
Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen
V. Boniface
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target37%
P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target26%
F. Wirtz
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target45%
E. Palacios
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Holstein Kiel
A. Kelati
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Harres
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
S. Machino
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Remberg
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
A. Bernhardsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target16%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayer Leverkusen xG (home)1.69
Holstein Kiel xG (away)1.18
Average Possession
59.44%
Possession
43.65%
Team Comparison Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel
86.12%
Pass accuracy
76.41%
589.47
Passes per match
370.29
-0.11
Goals prevented
-0.15
9.56
Fouls committed
11.97
2.85
Goalkeeper saves
3.59
1.94
Offsides
1.38
11.68
Tackles per match
15.97
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel prediction analysis
Review Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights