Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2026-09-05 13:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
61%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Union Berlin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
60%
X
21%
2
19%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bayer Leverkusen (Home)

Goals scored / match2.24
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate65%

Union Berlin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bayer Leverkusen
DLWWL
Union Berlin
WWDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 71%
47% +1.5 18%
29% +2.5 12%
24% +3.5 6%
12% +4.5 0%
65% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bayer Leverkusen averages 2.24 goals scored at home, while Union Berlin averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
60%
Draw
21%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Bayer Leverkusen(A) 0 - 1 Union Berlin Away
Oct 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 0 Union Berlin Home
Apr 2025 Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 0 Union Berlin Draw
Nov 2024 Bayer Leverkusen(A) 2 - 1 Union Berlin Home
Apr 2024 Bayer Leverkusen(A) 1 - 0 Union Berlin Home

In the last 5 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Bayer Leverkusen — unbeaten run (home)2
Bayer Leverkusen — scoring streak (home)17
Union Berlin — winless run (away)0
Union Berlin — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bayer Leverkusen Win (1)60%
Draw (X)21%
Union Berlin Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 71%
47% +1.5 18%
29% +2.5 12%
24% +3.5 6%
12% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 29%
53% -1.5 82%
71% -2.5 88%
76% -3.5 94%
88% -4.5 100%

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bayer Leverkusen — scored (home)2.24
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (home)1.12
Union Berlin — scored (away)1.06
Union Berlin — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals3.15

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (home)65%
Union Berlin — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bayer Leverkusen (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against3.3

Union Berlin (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bayer Leverkusen
15 7 10 13 11
Union Berlin
15 14 7 15 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Bayer Leverkusen (home)

For1.9

Union Berlin (away)

For1.8

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.65

Bayer Leverkusen

Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.576%
Shots Over 13.562%
Expected shots15.84
On Target Over 3.577%
On Target Over 4.563%
On Target Over 5.548%
Expected on target5.69

Union Berlin

Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.540%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.81
On Target Over 3.550%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.520%
Expected on target3.78

Shots per Game

Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (home)18.6
Union Berlin — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Bayer Leverkusen — on target (home)6.5
Union Berlin — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bayer Leverkusen

Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5.38

Union Berlin

Inside the box9.06
Outside the box3.41

Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen

P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target46%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%
Christian Kofane
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target21%
I. Maza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Tella
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Union Berlin

A. Ilić
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target14%
Ilyas Ansah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Schäfer
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target4%
D. Doekhi
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bayer Leverkusen xG (home)1.93
Union Berlin xG (away)1.35

Average Possession

59.18% Possession 40.24%

Team Comparison Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

87.68% Pass accuracy 71.44%
605.44 Passes per match 334.44
0.16 Goals prevented -0.02
8.59 Fouls committed 12.26
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 2.71
1.34 Offsides 1.67
14.06 Tackles per match 14.76

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction analysis

Review Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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