Prediction Analysis: Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-12-14
16:30
Bayern München
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
75%
Confidence
High
Score
3-0
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Prediction Summary
1
83%
X
11%
2
6%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Bayern München (Home)
Goals scored / match4
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate82%
BTTS rate71%
FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Bayern München
WWDWW
FSV Mainz 05
WLWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
76%
94%
+1.5
47%
82%
+2.5
6%
59%
+3.5
6%
35%
+4.5
0%
71%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 75%. Model confidence is High.
Bayern München averages 4 goals scored at home, while FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.35 goals scored away.
Model Strength
83%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
83%
Draw
11%
Away Win
6%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Bayern München(A)
4 - 3
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Dec 2025
Bayern München
2 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Draw
Apr 2025
Bayern München
3 - 0
FSV Mainz 05
Home
Dec 2024
Bayern München(A)
1 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Oct 2024
Bayern München(A)
4 - 0
FSV Mainz 05
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Bayern München won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Bayern München — unbeaten run (home)7
Bayern München — scoring streak (home)17
FSV Mainz 05 — winless run (away)0
FSV Mainz 05 — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Bayern München Win (1)83%
Draw (X)11%
FSV Mainz 05 Win (2)6%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
76%
94%
+1.5
47%
82%
+2.5
6%
59%
+3.5
6%
35%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
24%
6%
-1.5
53%
18%
-2.5
94%
41%
-3.5
94%
65%
-4.5
100%
Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Bayern München — scored (home)4
Bayern München — conceded (home)1.12
FSV Mainz 05 — scored (away)1.35
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals3.94
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
Bayern München — BTTS matches (home)71%
FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)68%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Bayern München (home)
Corners for7.6
Corners against3.1
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
Corners for3.9
Corners against5.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Bayern München
14
8
18
9
10
FSV Mainz 05
6
8
14
15
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Bayern München (home)
For1.4
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Bayern München — total shots (home)21.5
FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (away)10.5
Shots on Target
Bayern München — on target (home)8.9
FSV Mainz 05 — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Bayern München
Inside the box12.97
Outside the box6.21
FSV Mainz 05
Inside the box9.21
Outside the box2.85
Player Shots Bayern München
H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target55%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target47%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Gnabry
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target19%
Player Shots FSV Mainz 05
P. Tietz
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
S. Katompa Mvumpa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target19%
B. Hollerbach
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayern München xG (home)2.96
FSV Mainz 05 xG (away)1.61
Average Possession
67.44%
Possession
43.97%
Team Comparison Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05
89.88%
Pass accuracy
74.56%
700.91
Passes per match
370.74
-0.3
Goals prevented
0.33
8.79
Fouls committed
10.97
2.03
Goalkeeper saves
3.41
2.44
Offsides
2.39
12.79
Tackles per match
15.35
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction analysis
Review Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights