Prediction Analysis: Bayern München vs SC Freiburg
Bayern München vs SC Freiburg prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-11-22
14:30
Bayern München
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
High
Score
2-0
SC Freiburg
Away
Prediction Summary
1
82%
X
13%
2
5%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS No
64%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Bayern München (Home)
Goals scored / match4
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate82%
BTTS rate71%
SC Freiburg (Away)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match2.06
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate41%
Team Form last 5 matches
Bayern München
WWDWW
SC Freiburg
WLDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
53%
94%
+1.5
35%
82%
+2.5
12%
59%
+3.5
6%
35%
+4.5
0%
71%
BTTS
41%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is High.
Bayern München averages 4 goals scored at home, while SC Freiburg averages 1.06 goals scored away.
Model Strength
82%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
82%
Draw
13%
Away Win
5%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
36%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Bayern München(A)
3 - 2
SC Freiburg
Home
Nov 2025
Bayern München
6 - 2
SC Freiburg
Home
Jan 2025
Bayern München(A)
2 - 1
SC Freiburg
Home
Sep 2024
Bayern München
2 - 0
SC Freiburg
Home
Mar 2024
Bayern München(A)
2 - 2
SC Freiburg
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Bayern München won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Bayern München — unbeaten run (home)7
Bayern München — scoring streak (home)17
SC Freiburg — winless run (away)2
SC Freiburg — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Bayern München Win (1)82%
Draw (X)13%
SC Freiburg Win (2)5%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
53%
94%
+1.5
35%
82%
+2.5
12%
59%
+3.5
6%
35%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
47%
6%
-1.5
65%
18%
-2.5
88%
41%
-3.5
94%
65%
-4.5
100%
Bayern München vs SC Freiburg — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Bayern München — scored (home)4
Bayern München — conceded (home)1.12
SC Freiburg — scored (away)1.06
SC Freiburg — conceded (away)2.06
Model expected combined goals3.1
Both Teams To Score
Yes36%
No64%
Rate per Team
Bayern München — BTTS matches (home)71%
SC Freiburg — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)56%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.586%
Under 5.514%
Over 6.583%
Under 6.517%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.536%
Under 10.564%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Bayern München (home)
Corners for7.6
Corners against3.1
SC Freiburg (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Bayern München
14
8
18
9
10
SC Freiburg
9
5
8
6
3
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Bayern München (home)
For1.4
SC Freiburg (away)
For1.5
Shots per Game
Bayern München — total shots (home)21.5
SC Freiburg — total shots (away)10.2
Shots on Target
Bayern München — on target (home)8.9
SC Freiburg — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Bayern München
Inside the box12.97
Outside the box6.21
SC Freiburg
Inside the box8.38
Outside the box3.85
Player Shots Bayern München
H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target55%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target47%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Gnabry
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target19%
Player Shots SC Freiburg
I. Matanović
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target19%
Y. Suzuki
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Beste
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Manzambi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target4%
L. Höler
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayern München xG (home)2.96
SC Freiburg xG (away)1.43
Average Possession
67.44%
Possession
48%
Team Comparison Bayern München vs SC Freiburg
89.88%
Pass accuracy
80.06%
700.91
Passes per match
406.47
-0.3
Goals prevented
-0.1
8.79
Fouls committed
9.35
2.03
Goalkeeper saves
3
2.44
Offsides
2.06
12.79
Tackles per match
14.35
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Bayern München vs SC Freiburg prediction analysis
Review Bayern München vs SC Freiburg with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights