What markets are included in the Benfica vs Arouca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Benfica vs Arouca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Benfica vs Arouca

Benfica vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-04-13 17:00

Benfica

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

64%

Confidence

High

Score

2-0

Arouca

Away

Prediction Summary

71%

17%

12%

Over 2.5

64%

BTTS Yes

54%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Benfica (Home)

Goals scored / match3.06

Goals conceded / match0.71

Over 2.5 rate71%

BTTS rate47%

Arouca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.76

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Benfica

DDWWW

Arouca

WDDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 76%

76% +1.5 29%

71% +2.5 6%

35% +3.5 0%

18% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 64%. Model confidence is High.

Benfica averages 3.06 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

71%

Draw

17%

Away Win

12%

Over 2.5

64%

BTTS Yes

54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Benfica(A) 2 - 1 Arouca Home

Oct 2025 Benfica 5 - 0 Arouca Home

Apr 2025 Benfica 2 - 2 Arouca Draw

Dec 2024 Benfica(A) 2 - 0 Arouca Home

May 2024 Benfica 5 - 0 Arouca Home

In the last 5 meetings, Benfica won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Benfica — unbeaten run (home)8

Benfica — scoring streak (home)17

Arouca — winless run (away)4

Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Benfica Win (1)71%

Draw (X)17%

Arouca Win (2)12%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 76%

76% +1.5 29%

71% +2.5 6%

35% +3.5 0%

18% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 24%

24% -1.5 71%

29% -2.5 94%

65% -3.5 100%

82% -4.5 100%

Benfica vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Benfica — scored (home)3.06

Benfica — conceded (home)0.71

Arouca — scored (away)1.12

Arouca — conceded (away)1.76

Model expected combined goals3.32

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%

No46%

Rate per Team

Benfica — BTTS matches (home)47%

Arouca — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.556%

Under 9.544%

Over 10.547%

Under 10.553%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Benfica (home)

Corners for7.7

Corners against3.0

Arouca (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Benfica

10 14 6 8 12

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.583%

Under 2.517%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Benfica (home)

For1.6

Arouca (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

Benfica — total shots (home)19.0

Arouca — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

Benfica — on target (home)7.9

Arouca — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Benfica

Inside the box10.65

Outside the box6.21

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Player Shots Benfica

A. Belotti

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target21%

Tiago Gouveia

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target50%

Z. Amdouni

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target25%

Arthur Cabral

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Á. Di María

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Benfica xG (home)2.23

Arouca xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

58.38% Possession 52.59%

Team Comparison Benfica vs Arouca

84.06% Pass accuracy 80.94%

501.68 Passes per match 421.68

-0.07 Goals prevented -0.03

11.76 Fouls committed 14.65

2.29 Goalkeeper saves 2.82

3.11 Offsides 1.88

18.65 Tackles per match 16.32

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Benfica vs Arouca prediction analysis

Review Benfica vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights