What markets are included in the Benfica vs Arouca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Benfica vs Arouca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Benfica vs Arouca

Benfica vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-10-25 19:30

Benfica

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

60%

Confidence

Medium

Score

2-0

Arouca

Away

Prediction Summary

68%

19%

14%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Yes

52%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Benfica (Home)

Goals scored / match2.41

Goals conceded / match0.76

Over 2.5 rate41%

BTTS rate59%

Arouca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.18

Goals conceded / match2

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Benfica

WDDWW

Arouca

WWDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 71%

76% +1.5 29%

41% +2.5 18%

18% +3.5 0%

6% +4.5 0%

59% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Benfica averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.18 goals scored away.

Model Strength

68%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

68%

Draw

19%

Away Win

14%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Yes

52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Benfica(A) 2 - 1 Arouca Home

Oct 2025 Benfica 5 - 0 Arouca Home

Apr 2025 Benfica 2 - 2 Arouca Draw

Dec 2024 Benfica(A) 2 - 0 Arouca Home

May 2024 Benfica 5 - 0 Arouca Home

In the last 5 meetings, Benfica won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Benfica — unbeaten run (home)17

Benfica — scoring streak (home)17

Arouca — winless run (away)0

Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Benfica Win (1)68%

Draw (X)19%

Arouca Win (2)14%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 71%

76% +1.5 29%

41% +2.5 18%

18% +3.5 0%

6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 29%

24% -1.5 71%

59% -2.5 82%

82% -3.5 100%

94% -4.5 100%

Benfica vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Benfica — scored (home)2.41

Benfica — conceded (home)0.76

Arouca — scored (away)1.18

Arouca — conceded (away)2

Model expected combined goals3.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%

No48%

Rate per Team

Benfica — BTTS matches (home)59%

Arouca — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.580%

Under 6.520%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.556%

Under 8.544%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.527%

Under 10.573%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Benfica (home)

Corners for7.5

Corners against2.6

Arouca (away)

Corners for3.4

Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Benfica

11 11 10 10 11

Arouca

7 9 11 8 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.588%

Under 1.512%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Benfica (home)

For1.8

Arouca (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Benfica — total shots (home)18.1

Arouca — total shots (away)10.6

Shots on Target

Benfica — on target (home)6.9

Arouca — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Benfica

Inside the box11.59

Outside the box5.47

Arouca

Inside the box6.15

Outside the box4.53

Player Shots Benfica

V. Pavlidis

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target82%

+1.5 On Target36%

Rafa

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target25%

F. Ivanović

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target20%

A. Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

R. Rios

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target19%

Player Shots Arouca

Barbero

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target13%

A. Trezza

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

N. Djouahra

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target9%

Lee Hyun-Ju

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target3%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Benfica xG (home)2.07

Arouca xG (away)1

Average Possession

57.82% Possession 50.21%

Team Comparison Benfica vs Arouca

84.24% Pass accuracy 81.91%

480.35 Passes per match 413.24

0.18 Goals prevented -0.24

11.15 Fouls committed 13.82

2.47 Goalkeeper saves 2.68

1.68 Offsides 1.48

16.56 Tackles per match 14.26

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Benfica vs Arouca prediction analysis

Review Benfica vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights