What markets are included in the Benfica vs Qarabag prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Benfica vs Qarabag prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Benfica vs Qarabag

Benfica vs Qarabag prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-09-16 19:00

Benfica

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Low

Score

0-1

Qarabag

Away

Prediction Summary

22%

24%

54%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS · No edge

50%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Benfica (Home)

Goals scored / match1.57

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate14%

BTTS rate29%

Qarabag (Away)

Goals scored / match1.63

Goals conceded / match2.13

Over 2.5 rate38%

BTTS rate50%

Team Form last 5 matches

Benfica

LLWLW

Qarabag

LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 75%

57% +1.5 50%

14% +2.5 38%

14% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

29% BTTS 50%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Benfica averages 1.57 goals scored at home, while Qarabag averages 1.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength

54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

22%

Draw

24%

Away Win

54%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

50%

Head-to-Head last 1

Sep 2025 Benfica 2 - 3 Qarabag Away

In the last 1 meetings, Benfica won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Benfica — unbeaten run (home)0

Benfica — scoring streak (home)0

Qarabag — winless run (away)4

Qarabag — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Benfica Win (1)22%

Draw (X)24%

Qarabag Win (2)54%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 75%

57% +1.5 50%

14% +2.5 38%

14% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 25%

43% -1.5 50%

86% -2.5 62%

86% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Benfica vs Qarabag — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Benfica — scored (home)1.57

Benfica — conceded (home)1

Qarabag — scored (away)1.63

Qarabag — conceded (away)2.13

Model expected combined goals2.62

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%

No50%

Rate per Team

Benfica — BTTS matches (home)29%

Qarabag — BTTS matches (away)50%

Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.593%

Under 5.57%

Over 6.586%

Under 6.514%

Over 7.577%

Under 7.523%

Over 8.570%

Under 8.530%

Over 9.563%

Under 9.537%

Over 10.555%

Under 10.545%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Benfica (home)

Corners for5.0

Corners against3.9

Qarabag (away)

Corners for3.3

Corners against8.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Benfica

8 11 11 9 11

Qarabag

10 8 15 14 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.577%

Under 0.523%

Over 1.560%

Under 1.540%

Over 2.560%

Under 2.540%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Benfica (home)

For1.7

Qarabag (away)

For1.3

Shots per Game

Benfica — total shots (home)16.6

Qarabag — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Benfica — on target (home)5.3

Qarabag — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Benfica

Inside the box8.71

Outside the box5.07

Qarabag

Inside the box6.25

Outside the box4.08

Player Shots Benfica

D. Lukebakio

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target75%

+1.5 On Target50%

K. Aktürkoğlu

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

R. Rios

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target0%

V. Pavlidis

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target21%

A. Schjelderup

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Qarabag

C. Durán

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target30%

Leandro Andrade

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target0%

O. Kashchuk

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

E. Addai

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target8%

Joni Montiel

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Benfica xG (home)1.43

Qarabag xG (away)1.09

Average Possession

47.07% Possession 45.25%

Team Comparison Benfica vs Qarabag

83.07% Pass accuracy 80.33%

434.5 Passes per match 389.08

-0.14 Goals prevented -0.34

10.5 Fouls committed 7.17

3.07 Goalkeeper saves 4.08

1.46 Offsides 1.25

17.29 Tackles per match 14.58

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Benfica vs Qarabag prediction analysis

Review Benfica vs Qarabag with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights