Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Birmingham vs Bristol City

Birmingham vs Bristol City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-08-22 11:30
Birmingham
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Bristol City
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
26%
2
27%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Birmingham (Home)

Goals scored / match1.7
Goals conceded / match0.96
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate65%

Bristol City (Away)

Goals scored / match1.13
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Birmingham
DWWDW
Bristol City
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 65%
48% +1.5 30%
17% +2.5 13%
13% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%
65% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Birmingham averages 1.7 goals scored at home, while Bristol City averages 1.13 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
26%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Birmingham 2 - 1 Bristol City Home
Oct 2025 Birmingham(A) 0 - 1 Bristol City Away
Dec 2023 Birmingham 0 - 0 Bristol City Draw
Aug 2023 Birmingham(A) 2 - 0 Bristol City Home
Jan 2023 Birmingham(A) 2 - 4 Bristol City Away

In the last 5 meetings, Birmingham won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Birmingham — unbeaten run (home)3
Birmingham — scoring streak (home)3
Bristol City — winless run (away)3
Bristol City — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Birmingham Win (1)47%
Draw (X)26%
Bristol City Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 65%
48% +1.5 30%
17% +2.5 13%
13% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 35%
52% -1.5 70%
83% -2.5 87%
87% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 100%

Birmingham vs Bristol City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Birmingham — scored (home)1.7
Birmingham — conceded (home)0.96
Bristol City — scored (away)1.13
Bristol City — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Birmingham — BTTS matches (home)65%
Bristol City — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)58.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Birmingham (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against3.9

Bristol City (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Birmingham
9 8 6 11 12
Bristol City
9 12 10 11 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Birmingham (home)

For2.0

Bristol City (away)

For2.0

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.73

Birmingham

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.19
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.64

Bristol City

Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.538%
Shots Over 13.523%
Expected shots10.54
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.516%
Expected on target3.47

Shots per Game

Birmingham — total shots (home)17.3
Bristol City — total shots (away)11.6

Shots on Target

Birmingham — on target (home)5.7
Bristol City — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Birmingham

Inside the box8.76
Outside the box4.85

Bristol City

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.78

Player Shots Birmingham

M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Stansfield
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target24%
Carlos Vicente
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
D. Gray
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Bristol City

A. Mehmeti
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Twine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
E. Riis
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Bell
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Birmingham xG (home)1.36
Bristol City xG (away)1.21

Average Possession

53.74% Possession 49.28%

Team Comparison Birmingham vs Bristol City

77.15% Pass accuracy 77.85%
423.72 Passes per match 424.78
-0.06 Goals prevented -0.04
11.67 Fouls committed 9.54
2.4 Goalkeeper saves 3.23
1.8 Offsides 2.02
14.17 Tackles per match 14.8

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Birmingham vs Bristol City prediction analysis

Review Birmingham vs Bristol City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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