Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Birmingham vs Charlton

Birmingham vs Charlton prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-13 15:00
Birmingham
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Charlton
Away

Prediction Summary

1
62%
X
22%
2
16%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Birmingham (Home)

Goals scored / match1.7
Goals conceded / match0.96
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate65%

Charlton (Away)

Goals scored / match0.91
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

Birmingham
DWWDW
Charlton
LWLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 74%
48% +1.5 13%
17% +2.5 4%
13% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
65% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Medium.

Birmingham averages 1.7 goals scored at home, while Charlton averages 0.91 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
62%
Draw
22%
Away Win
16%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Birmingham(A) 0 - 1 Charlton Away
Dec 2025 Birmingham 1 - 1 Charlton Draw
Aug 2024 Birmingham(A) 1 - 0 Charlton Home
Jul 2020 Birmingham 1 - 1 Charlton Draw
Sep 2019 Birmingham(A) 1 - 0 Charlton Home

In the last 5 meetings, Birmingham won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Birmingham — unbeaten run (home)3
Birmingham — scoring streak (home)3
Charlton — winless run (away)4
Charlton — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Birmingham Win (1)62%
Draw (X)22%
Charlton Win (2)16%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 74%
48% +1.5 13%
17% +2.5 4%
13% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 26%
52% -1.5 87%
83% -2.5 96%
87% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Birmingham vs Charlton — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Birmingham — scored (home)1.7
Birmingham — conceded (home)0.96
Charlton — scored (away)0.91
Charlton — conceded (away)1.39
Model expected combined goals2.71

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Birmingham — BTTS matches (home)65%
Charlton — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)61%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.572%
Under 7.528%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Birmingham (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against3.9

Charlton (away)

Corners for3.2
Corners against6.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Birmingham
9 8 6 11 12
Charlton
11 9 5 16 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Birmingham (home)

For2.0

Charlton (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Birmingham — total shots (home)17.3
Charlton — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Birmingham — on target (home)5.7
Charlton — on target (away)3.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Birmingham

Inside the box8.76
Outside the box4.85

Charlton

Inside the box7.54
Outside the box3.46

Player Shots Birmingham

M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Stansfield
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target24%
Carlos Vicente
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
D. Gray
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Charlton

S. Carey
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Kelman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Dykes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Godden
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Fevrier
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target18%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Birmingham xG (home)1.36
Charlton xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

53.74% Possession 42.3%

Team Comparison Birmingham vs Charlton

77.15% Pass accuracy 70.28%
423.72 Passes per match 315.15
-0.06 Goals prevented -0.07
11.67 Fouls committed 12.09
2.4 Goalkeeper saves 3.04
1.8 Offsides 2.15
14.17 Tackles per match 13.59

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Birmingham vs Charlton prediction analysis

Review Birmingham vs Charlton with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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