What markets are included in the Birmingham vs Derby prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Birmingham vs Derby prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Birmingham vs Derby

Birmingham vs Derby prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-26 12:30

Birmingham

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

57%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Derby

Away

Prediction Summary

48%

24%

28%

Over 2.5

57%

BTTS Yes

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Birmingham (Home)

Goals scored / match1.7

Goals conceded / match0.96

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate65%

Derby (Away)

Goals scored / match1.57

Goals conceded / match1.39

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Birmingham

DWWDW

Derby

LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 87%

48% +1.5 43%

17% +2.5 17%

13% +3.5 4%

0% +4.5 4%

65% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Birmingham averages 1.7 goals scored at home, while Derby averages 1.57 goals scored away.

Model Strength

58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

48%

Draw

24%

Away Win

28%

Over 2.5

57%

BTTS Yes

58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Birmingham(A) 0 - 1 Derby Away

Dec 2025 Birmingham 1 - 1 Derby Draw

Jan 2022 Birmingham(A) 2 - 2 Derby Draw

Sep 2021 Birmingham 2 - 0 Derby Home

Apr 2021 Birmingham(A) 2 - 1 Derby Home

In the last 5 meetings, Birmingham won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Birmingham — unbeaten run (home)3

Birmingham — scoring streak (home)3

Derby — winless run (away)0

Derby — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Birmingham Win (1)48%

Draw (X)24%

Derby Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 87%

48% +1.5 43%

17% +2.5 17%

13% +3.5 4%

0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 13%

52% -1.5 57%

83% -2.5 83%

87% -3.5 96%

100% -4.5 96%

Birmingham vs Derby — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Birmingham — scored (home)1.7

Birmingham — conceded (home)0.96

Derby — scored (away)1.57

Derby — conceded (away)1.39

Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%

No42%

Rate per Team

Birmingham — BTTS matches (home)65%

Derby — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)65%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%

Under 4.54%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.581%

Under 6.519%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.559%

Under 8.541%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.548%

Under 10.552%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Birmingham (home)

Corners for6.6

Corners against3.9

Derby (away)

Corners for3.6

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Birmingham

9 8 6 11 12

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%

Under 0.54%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Birmingham (home)

For2.0

Derby (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Birmingham — total shots (home)17.3

Derby — total shots (away)10.0

Shots on Target

Birmingham — on target (home)5.7

Derby — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Birmingham

Inside the box8.76

Outside the box4.85

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Player Shots Birmingham

M. Ducksch

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target21%

J. Stansfield

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

I. Osman

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target24%

Carlos Vicente

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target12%

D. Gray

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Birmingham xG (home)1.36

Derby xG (away)1.23

Average Possession

53.74% Possession 44.48%

Team Comparison Birmingham vs Derby

77.15% Pass accuracy 73.22%

423.72 Passes per match 336.26

-0.06 Goals prevented 0.02

11.67 Fouls committed 12.22

2.4 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

1.8 Offsides 1.6

14.17 Tackles per match 14.65

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Birmingham vs Derby prediction analysis

Review Birmingham vs Derby with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights