Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Birmingham vs Norwich

Birmingham vs Norwich prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-11-22 15:00
Birmingham
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Norwich
Away

Prediction Summary

1
54%
X
24%
2
22%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Birmingham (Home)

Goals scored / match1.7
Goals conceded / match0.96
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate65%

Norwich (Away)

Goals scored / match1.57
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Birmingham
DWWDW
Norwich
LDWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

91% +0.5 87%
48% +1.5 43%
17% +2.5 13%
13% +3.5 9%
0% +4.5 4%
65% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Birmingham averages 1.7 goals scored at home, while Norwich averages 1.57 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Birmingham(A) 2 - 1 Norwich Home
Nov 2025 Birmingham 4 - 1 Norwich Home
May 2024 Birmingham 1 - 0 Norwich Home
Sep 2023 Birmingham(A) 0 - 2 Norwich Away
Feb 2023 Birmingham(A) 1 - 3 Norwich Away

In the last 5 meetings, Birmingham won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Birmingham — unbeaten run (home)3
Birmingham — scoring streak (home)3
Norwich — winless run (away)1
Norwich — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Birmingham Win (1)54%
Draw (X)24%
Norwich Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

91% +0.5 87%
48% +1.5 43%
17% +2.5 13%
13% +3.5 9%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

9% -0.5 13%
52% -1.5 57%
83% -2.5 87%
87% -3.5 91%
100% -4.5 96%

Birmingham vs Norwich — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Birmingham — scored (home)1.7
Birmingham — conceded (home)0.96
Norwich — scored (away)1.57
Norwich — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.69

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Birmingham — BTTS matches (home)65%
Norwich — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)65%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.557%
Under 10.543%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Birmingham (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against3.9

Norwich (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Birmingham
9 8 6 11 12
Norwich
14 12 7 7 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Birmingham (home)

For2.0

Norwich (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Birmingham — total shots (home)17.3
Norwich — total shots (away)11.5

Shots on Target

Birmingham — on target (home)5.7
Norwich — on target (away)4.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Birmingham

Inside the box8.76
Outside the box4.85

Norwich

Inside the box8
Outside the box4.57

Player Shots Birmingham

M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Stansfield
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
I. Osman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target24%
Carlos Vicente
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
D. Gray
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Norwich

M. Touré
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
A. Ben Slimane
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
J. Sargent
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Makama
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target14%
P. Maghoma
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target21%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Birmingham xG (home)1.36
Norwich xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

53.74% Possession 53.63%

Team Comparison Birmingham vs Norwich

77.15% Pass accuracy 79.24%
423.72 Passes per match 435.28
-0.06 Goals prevented 0.13
11.67 Fouls committed 10.2
2.4 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.8 Offsides 1.93
14.17 Tackles per match 16.72

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Birmingham vs Norwich prediction analysis

Review Birmingham vs Norwich with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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