Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Boavista vs FC Porto

Boavista vs FC Porto prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-05-11 19:30
Boavista
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
FC Porto
Away

Prediction Summary

1
17%
X
24%
2
58%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Boavista (Home)

Goals scored / match0.47
Goals conceded / match1.82
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate35%

FC Porto (Away)

Goals scored / match1.53
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Boavista
LLWLW
FC Porto
WWWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

41% +0.5 76%
6% +1.5 47%
0% +2.5 18%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 6%
35% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Boavista averages 0.47 goals scored at home, while FC Porto averages 1.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
17%
Draw
24%
Away Win
58%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
44%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2025 Boavista 1 - 2 FC Porto Away
Dec 2024 Boavista(A) 0 - 4 FC Porto Away
May 2024 Boavista(A) 1 - 2 FC Porto Away
Jan 2024 Boavista 1 - 1 FC Porto Draw
Apr 2023 Boavista(A) 0 - 1 FC Porto Away

In the last 5 meetings, Boavista won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Boavista — unbeaten run (home)0
Boavista — scoring streak (home)1
FC Porto — winless run (away)0
FC Porto — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Boavista Win (1)17%
Draw (X)24%
FC Porto Win (2)58%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

41% +0.5 76%
6% +1.5 47%
0% +2.5 18%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

59% -0.5 24%
94% -1.5 53%
100% -2.5 82%
100% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 94%

Boavista vs FC Porto — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Boavista — scored (home)0.47
Boavista — conceded (home)1.82
FC Porto — scored (away)1.53
FC Porto — conceded (away)1.12
Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%
No56%

Rate per Team

Boavista — BTTS matches (home)35%
FC Porto — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)35%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.588%
Under 4.512%
Over 5.580%
Under 5.520%
Over 6.562%
Under 6.538%
Over 7.553%
Under 7.547%
Over 8.544%
Under 8.556%
Over 9.529%
Under 9.571%
Over 10.524%
Under 10.576%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Boavista (home)

Corners for4.4
Corners against4.4

FC Porto (away)

Corners for4.6
Corners against2.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Boavista
8 8 9 4 13
FC Porto
9 16 11 4 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.597%
Under 2.53%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Boavista (home)

For2.7

FC Porto (away)

For3.4

Shots per Game

Boavista — total shots (home)11.6
FC Porto — total shots (away)12.4

Shots on Target

Boavista — on target (home)3.4
FC Porto — on target (away)4.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Boavista

Inside the box6.09
Outside the box4.32

FC Porto

Inside the box9.71
Outside the box4.56

Player Shots Boavista

Manuel Namora
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Boženík
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target24%
Joel da Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target7%
A. Diaby
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target8%
Miguel Reisinho
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots FC Porto

Galeno
Shots on Target/Game2.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target44%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target14%
Samu
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
Iván Jaime
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
Pepê Aquino
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Boavista xG (home)0.96
FC Porto xG (away)1.6

Average Possession

39.79% Possession 62.03%

Team Comparison Boavista vs FC Porto

73.29% Pass accuracy 85.85%
315.88 Passes per match 514.44
0.24 Goals prevented -0.06
12.74 Fouls committed 14.24
3.5 Goalkeeper saves 1.91
2.53 Offsides 1.45
16.82 Tackles per match 13.82

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Boavista vs FC Porto prediction analysis

Review Boavista vs FC Porto with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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