Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bologna vs Parma

Bologna vs Parma prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2024-10-06 13:00
Bologna
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Parma
Away

Prediction Summary

1
43%
X
28%
2
29%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bologna (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate63%

Parma (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bologna
LLLDD
Parma
WDLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 63%
47% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
63% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bologna averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Parma averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
43%
Draw
28%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Bologna 0 - 1 Parma Away
Dec 2025 Bologna 2 - 1 Parma Home
Nov 2025 Bologna(A) 3 - 1 Parma Home
Feb 2025 Bologna(A) 0 - 2 Parma Away
Oct 2024 Bologna 0 - 0 Parma Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Bologna won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Bologna — unbeaten run (home)0
Bologna — scoring streak (home)15
Parma — winless run (away)0
Parma — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bologna Win (1)43%
Draw (X)28%
Parma Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 63%
47% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 37%
53% -1.5 68%
79% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Bologna vs Parma — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bologna — scored (home)1.74
Bologna — conceded (home)0.95
Parma — scored (away)1
Parma — conceded (away)1.58
Model expected combined goals2.29

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Bologna — BTTS matches (home)63%
Parma — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.587%
Under 4.513%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.564%
Under 9.536%
Over 10.553%
Under 10.547%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bologna (home)

Corners for6.5
Corners against3.2

Parma (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bologna
11 13 7 6 14
Parma
6 10 4 5 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Bologna (home)

For1.6

Parma (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Bologna — total shots (home)15.5
Parma — total shots (away)10.7

Shots on Target

Bologna — on target (home)5.1
Parma — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bologna

Inside the box8.61
Outside the box4.87

Parma

Inside the box6.61
Outside the box4.58

Player Shots Bologna

J. Lucumí
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target3%
+1.5 On Target3%
R. Orsolini
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target23%
T. Pobega
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Odgaard
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target24%
B. Domínguez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target21%

Player Shots Parma

M. Keita
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Ondrejka
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Camara
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target5%
S. Sohm
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target8%
Mateo Pellegrino
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target23%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bologna xG (home)1.3
Parma xG (away)1.18

Average Possession

58.58% Possession 44.13%

Team Comparison Bologna vs Parma

83.11% Pass accuracy 79.68%
462.82 Passes per match 383
-0.21 Goals prevented -0.14
14.13 Fouls committed 10.66
1.66 Goalkeeper saves 2.74
1.75 Offsides 0.82
15.53 Tackles per match 13.76

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bologna vs Parma prediction analysis

Review Bologna vs Parma with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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