Prediction Analysis: Bologna vs Sassuolo
Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-09-06
16:30
Bologna
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Sassuolo
Away
Prediction Summary
1
35%
X
28%
2
36%
+2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
46%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Bologna (Home)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate32%
Sassuolo (Away)
Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate58%
Team Form last 5 matches
Bologna
DWWDL
Sassuolo
LLLWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
58%
+0.5
68%
26%
+1.5
32%
11%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
32%
BTTS
58%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.
Bologna averages 1 goals scored at home, while Sassuolo averages 1.11 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
35%
Draw
28%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Bologna(A)
1 - 0
Sassuolo
Home
Dec 2025
Bologna
1 - 1
Sassuolo
Draw
Feb 2024
Bologna
4 - 2
Sassuolo
Home
Oct 2023
Bologna(A)
1 - 1
Sassuolo
Draw
May 2023
Bologna(A)
1 - 1
Sassuolo
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Bologna won 2, drew 3 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Bologna — unbeaten run (home)2
Bologna — scoring streak (home)1
Sassuolo — winless run (away)6
Sassuolo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Bologna Win (1)35%
Draw (X)28%
Sassuolo Win (2)36%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
58%
+0.5
68%
26%
+1.5
32%
11%
+2.5
11%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
42%
-0.5
32%
74%
-1.5
68%
89%
-2.5
89%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Bologna vs Sassuolo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Bologna — scored (home)1
Bologna — conceded (home)1.21
Sassuolo — scored (away)1.11
Sassuolo — conceded (away)1.26
Model expected combined goals2.29
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
Bologna — BTTS matches (home)32%
Sassuolo — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)45%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Bologna (home)
Corners for5.2
Corners against3.8
Sassuolo (away)
Corners for3.7
Corners against4.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Bologna
14
9
8
7
5
Sassuolo
11
5
12
10
2
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Bologna (home)
For1.4
Sassuolo (away)
For2.4
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.86
Bologna
Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.48
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.59
Sassuolo
Shots Over 9.554%
Shots Over 11.536%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots10.38
On Target Over 3.547%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.59
Shots per Game
Bologna — total shots (home)14.7
Sassuolo — total shots (away)10.6
Shots on Target
Bologna — on target (home)3.8
Sassuolo — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Bologna
Inside the box8.08
Outside the box4.79
Sassuolo
Inside the box7
Outside the box3.66
Player Shots Bologna
R. Orsolini
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Rowe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Odgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Sassuolo
A. Pinamonti
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target19%
D. Berardi
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Laurienté
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target16%
K. Thorstvedt
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target3%
C. Volpato
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Bologna xG (home)1.17
Sassuolo xG (away)1.12
Average Possession
55.05%
Possession
46.13%
Team Comparison Bologna vs Sassuolo
82.39%
Pass accuracy
82.16%
443.82
Passes per match
401.45
0.07
Goals prevented
0.01
13.16
Fouls committed
11.97
2.42
Goalkeeper saves
3.53
1.97
Offsides
1.89
14.24
Tackles per match
13.66
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction analysis
Review Bologna vs Sassuolo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights