Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Bundesliga 2025-01-10 19:45
Borussia Dortmund
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
66%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Bayer Leverkusen
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
23%
2
34%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS Yes
66%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Borussia Dortmund (Home)

Goals scored / match2.59
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate65%

Bayer Leverkusen (Away)

Goals scored / match2.12
Goals conceded / match1.24
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate76%

Team Form last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund
WWWWW
Bayer Leverkusen
DLDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 94%
76% +1.5 71%
47% +2.5 29%
29% +3.5 18%
6% +4.5 0%
65% BTTS 76%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 66%. Model confidence is Medium.

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.59 goals scored at home, while Bayer Leverkusen averages 2.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength
66%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
23%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS Yes
66%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen Away
Dec 2025 Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen Away
Nov 2025 Borussia Dortmund(A) 2 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen Home
May 2025 Borussia Dortmund(A) 4 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen Home
Jan 2025 Borussia Dortmund 2 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen Away

In the last 5 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Borussia Dortmund — unbeaten run (home)4
Borussia Dortmund — scoring streak (home)4
Bayer Leverkusen — winless run (away)3
Bayer Leverkusen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Borussia Dortmund Win (1)44%
Draw (X)23%
Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 94%
76% +1.5 71%
47% +2.5 29%
29% +3.5 18%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 6%
24% -1.5 29%
53% -2.5 71%
71% -3.5 82%
94% -4.5 100%

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Borussia Dortmund — scored (home)2.59
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (home)1.12
Bayer Leverkusen — scored (away)2.12
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (away)1.24
Model expected combined goals3.39

Both Teams To Score

Yes66%
No34%

Rate per Team

Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (home)65%
Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (away)76%
Combined (simple average)70.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.547%
Under 8.553%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Borussia Dortmund (home)

Corners for6.4
Corners against2.8

Bayer Leverkusen (away)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Borussia Dortmund
8 7 7 12 8
Bayer Leverkusen
8 10 5 12 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Borussia Dortmund (home)

For1.9

Bayer Leverkusen (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

Borussia Dortmund — total shots (home)15.5
Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Borussia Dortmund — on target (home)5.4
Bayer Leverkusen — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box10.26
Outside the box3.94

Bayer Leverkusen

Inside the box9.97
Outside the box4.79

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target37%
J. Bynoe-Gittens
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Sabitzer
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen

V. Boniface
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target37%
P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target26%
F. Wirtz
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target45%
E. Palacios
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Borussia Dortmund xG (home)1.82
Bayer Leverkusen xG (away)1.69

Average Possession

59.24% Possession 59.44%

Team Comparison Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen

85.26% Pass accuracy 86.12%
552.74 Passes per match 589.47
-0.3 Goals prevented -0.11
9.71 Fouls committed 9.56
2.74 Goalkeeper saves 2.85
1.34 Offsides 1.94
15.18 Tackles per match 11.68

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction analysis

Review Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top