Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2024-11-30 17:30
Borussia Dortmund
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
82%
Confidence
High
Score
1-2
Bayern München
Away

Prediction Summary

1
33%
X
19%
2
48%
Over 2.5
82%
BTTS Yes
79%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Borussia Dortmund (Home)

Goals scored / match2.59
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate65%

Bayern München (Away)

Goals scored / match2.71
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate59%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund
WWWWW
Bayern München
WWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 94%
76% +1.5 65%
47% +2.5 59%
29% +3.5 29%
6% +4.5 18%
65% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 82%. Model confidence is High.

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.59 goals scored at home, while Bayern München averages 2.71 goals scored away.

Model Strength
82%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
33%
Draw
19%
Away Win
48%
Over 2.5
82%
BTTS Yes
79%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Borussia Dortmund 2 - 3 Bayern München Away
Oct 2025 Borussia Dortmund(A) 1 - 2 Bayern München Away
Apr 2025 Borussia Dortmund(A) 2 - 2 Bayern München Draw
Nov 2024 Borussia Dortmund 1 - 1 Bayern München Draw
Mar 2024 Borussia Dortmund(A) 2 - 0 Bayern München Home

In the last 5 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Borussia Dortmund — unbeaten run (home)4
Borussia Dortmund — scoring streak (home)4
Bayern München — winless run (away)0
Bayern München — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Borussia Dortmund Win (1)33%
Draw (X)19%
Bayern München Win (2)48%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 94%
76% +1.5 65%
47% +2.5 59%
29% +3.5 29%
6% +4.5 18%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 6%
24% -1.5 35%
53% -2.5 41%
71% -3.5 71%
94% -4.5 82%

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Borussia Dortmund — scored (home)2.59
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (home)1.12
Bayern München — scored (away)2.71
Bayern München — conceded (away)0.94
Model expected combined goals4.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes79%
No21%

Rate per Team

Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (home)65%
Bayern München — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)62%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.565%
Under 7.535%
Over 8.544%
Under 8.556%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Borussia Dortmund (home)

Corners for6.4
Corners against2.8

Bayern München (away)

Corners for6.2
Corners against2.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Borussia Dortmund
8 7 7 12 8
Bayern München
8 8 9 13 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Borussia Dortmund (home)

For1.9

Bayern München (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Borussia Dortmund — total shots (home)15.5
Bayern München — total shots (away)16.7

Shots on Target

Borussia Dortmund — on target (home)5.4
Bayern München — on target (away)6.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box10.26
Outside the box3.94

Bayern München

Inside the box12.97
Outside the box6.03

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target37%
J. Bynoe-Gittens
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Sabitzer
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Bayern München

H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target48%
J. Musiala
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target32%
L. Sané
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Tel
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Borussia Dortmund xG (home)1.82
Bayern München xG (away)2.38

Average Possession

59.24% Possession 68.35%

Team Comparison Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München

85.26% Pass accuracy 89.56%
552.74 Passes per match 716.71
-0.3 Goals prevented -0.07
9.71 Fouls committed 8.68
2.74 Goalkeeper saves 1.5
1.34 Offsides 1.81
15.18 Tackles per match 14.76

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München prediction analysis

Review Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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