Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2026-08-29 16:30
Borussia Dortmund
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
65%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-0
Hamburger SV
Away

Prediction Summary

1
65%
X
20%
2
15%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Borussia Dortmund (Home)

Goals scored / match2.35
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate53%
BTTS rate41%

Hamburger SV (Away)

Goals scored / match0.88
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund
WWLWL
Hamburger SV
DWWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 65%
76% +1.5 24%
53% +2.5 0%
12% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
41% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.35 goals scored at home, while Hamburger SV averages 0.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
65%
Draw
20%
Away Win
15%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 2

Mar 2026 Borussia Dortmund 3 - 2 Hamburger SV Home
Nov 2025 Borussia Dortmund(A) 1 - 1 Hamburger SV Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Borussia Dortmund — unbeaten run (home)2
Borussia Dortmund — scoring streak (home)2
Hamburger SV — winless run (away)1
Hamburger SV — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Borussia Dortmund Win (1)65%
Draw (X)20%
Hamburger SV Win (2)15%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 65%
76% +1.5 24%
53% +2.5 0%
12% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 35%
24% -1.5 76%
47% -2.5 100%
88% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Borussia Dortmund — scored (home)2.35
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (home)0.94
Hamburger SV — scored (away)0.88
Hamburger SV — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals3.03

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (home)41%
Hamburger SV — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Borussia Dortmund (home)

Corners for7.2
Corners against3.4

Hamburger SV (away)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Borussia Dortmund
7 5 2 8 9
Hamburger SV
10 13 13 6 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Borussia Dortmund (home)

For1.8

Hamburger SV (away)

For2.4

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.43

Borussia Dortmund

Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.561%
Expected shots15.66
On Target Over 3.578%
On Target Over 4.564%
On Target Over 5.550%
Expected on target5.78

Hamburger SV

Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.540%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.77
On Target Over 3.554%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.97

Shots per Game

Borussia Dortmund — total shots (home)14.8
Hamburger SV — total shots (away)11.3

Shots on Target

Borussia Dortmund — on target (home)5.4
Hamburger SV — on target (away)4.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box9.68
Outside the box3.38

Hamburger SV

Inside the box8.06
Outside the box4.24

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target27%
S. Inacio
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Beier
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target19%
J. Brandt
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Hamburger SV

R. Königsdörffer
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target12%
Fábio Vieira
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Dompé
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target20%
R. Philippe
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Grønbæk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Borussia Dortmund xG (home)1.88
Hamburger SV xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

53.24% Possession 45.35%

Team Comparison Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

83.21% Pass accuracy 80%
493.21 Passes per match 390.12
0.14 Goals prevented 0.02
11.71 Fouls committed 11.82
2.62 Goalkeeper saves 3.35
1.18 Offsides 1.79
14.44 Tackles per match 15

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV prediction analysis

Review Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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