Prediction Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2024-11-02
17:30
Borussia Dortmund
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
RB Leipzig
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
23%
2
30%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Borussia Dortmund (Home)
Goals scored / match2.59
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate65%
RB Leipzig (Away)
Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate41%
Team Form last 5 matches
Borussia Dortmund
WWWWW
RB Leipzig
LDDLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
94%
+0.5
59%
76%
+1.5
35%
47%
+2.5
24%
29%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
65%
BTTS
41%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.
Borussia Dortmund averages 2.59 goals scored at home, while RB Leipzig averages 1.18 goals scored away.
Model Strength
62%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
23%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Borussia Dortmund(A)
2 - 2
RB Leipzig
Draw
Oct 2025
Borussia Dortmund
1 - 1
RB Leipzig
Draw
Mar 2025
Borussia Dortmund(A)
0 - 2
RB Leipzig
Away
Nov 2024
Borussia Dortmund
2 - 1
RB Leipzig
Home
Apr 2024
Borussia Dortmund(A)
1 - 4
RB Leipzig
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Borussia Dortmund — unbeaten run (home)4
Borussia Dortmund — scoring streak (home)4
RB Leipzig — winless run (away)2
RB Leipzig — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Borussia Dortmund Win (1)46%
Draw (X)23%
RB Leipzig Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
94%
+0.5
59%
76%
+1.5
35%
47%
+2.5
24%
29%
+3.5
0%
6%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
6%
-0.5
41%
24%
-1.5
65%
53%
-2.5
76%
71%
-3.5
100%
94%
-4.5
100%
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Borussia Dortmund — scored (home)2.59
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (home)1.12
RB Leipzig — scored (away)1.18
RB Leipzig — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals3.13
Both Teams To Score
Yes62%
No38%
Rate per Team
Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (home)65%
RB Leipzig — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Borussia Dortmund (home)
Corners for6.4
Corners against2.8
RB Leipzig (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against6.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Borussia Dortmund
8
7
7
12
8
RB Leipzig
16
12
9
15
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Borussia Dortmund (home)
For1.9
RB Leipzig (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Borussia Dortmund — total shots (home)15.5
RB Leipzig — total shots (away)11.1
Shots on Target
Borussia Dortmund — on target (home)5.4
RB Leipzig — on target (away)3.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Borussia Dortmund
Inside the box10.26
Outside the box3.94
RB Leipzig
Inside the box7.88
Outside the box4.12
Player Shots Borussia Dortmund
S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target37%
J. Bynoe-Gittens
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Sabitzer
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots RB Leipzig
K. Kampl
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
L. Openda
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target30%
B. Šeško
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target27%
X. Simons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target16%
Y. Poulsen
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target5%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Borussia Dortmund xG (home)1.82
RB Leipzig xG (away)1.36
Average Possession
59.24%
Possession
52.32%
Team Comparison Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
85.26%
Pass accuracy
82.32%
552.74
Passes per match
492.91
-0.3
Goals prevented
0.07
9.71
Fouls committed
11.06
2.74
Goalkeeper saves
3.29
1.34
Offsides
2.44
15.18
Tackles per match
15.82
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig prediction analysis
Review Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights