Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin

Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-08-31 15:30
Borussia Dortmund
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-0
Union Berlin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
63%
X
20%
2
17%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Borussia Dortmund (Home)

Goals scored / match2.35
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate53%
BTTS rate41%

Union Berlin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund
WWLWL
Union Berlin
WWDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 71%
76% +1.5 18%
53% +2.5 12%
12% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
41% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.35 goals scored at home, while Union Berlin averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
63%
Draw
20%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Borussia Dortmund(A) 3 - 0 Union Berlin Home
Aug 2025 Borussia Dortmund 3 - 0 Union Berlin Home
Feb 2025 Borussia Dortmund 6 - 0 Union Berlin Home
Oct 2024 Borussia Dortmund(A) 1 - 2 Union Berlin Away
Mar 2024 Borussia Dortmund(A) 2 - 0 Union Berlin Home

In the last 5 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Borussia Dortmund — unbeaten run (home)2
Borussia Dortmund — scoring streak (home)2
Union Berlin — winless run (away)0
Union Berlin — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Borussia Dortmund Win (1)63%
Draw (X)20%
Union Berlin Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 71%
76% +1.5 18%
53% +2.5 12%
12% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 29%
24% -1.5 82%
47% -2.5 88%
88% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Borussia Dortmund — scored (home)2.35
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (home)0.94
Union Berlin — scored (away)1.06
Union Berlin — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals3.12

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (home)41%
Union Berlin — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.597%
Under 5.53%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Borussia Dortmund (home)

Corners for7.2
Corners against3.4

Union Berlin (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Borussia Dortmund
7 5 2 8 9
Union Berlin
15 14 7 15 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.591%
Under 0.59%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Borussia Dortmund (home)

For1.8

Union Berlin (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Borussia Dortmund — total shots (home)14.8
Union Berlin — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Borussia Dortmund — on target (home)5.4
Union Berlin — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box9.68
Outside the box3.38

Union Berlin

Inside the box9.06
Outside the box3.41

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target27%
S. Inacio
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Beier
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target19%
J. Brandt
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Union Berlin

A. Ilić
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target14%
Ilyas Ansah
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Schäfer
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target4%
D. Doekhi
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Borussia Dortmund xG (home)1.88
Union Berlin xG (away)1.35

Average Possession

53.24% Possession 40.24%

Team Comparison Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin

83.21% Pass accuracy 71.44%
493.21 Passes per match 334.44
0.14 Goals prevented -0.02
11.71 Fouls committed 12.26
2.62 Goalkeeper saves 2.71
1.18 Offsides 1.67
14.44 Tackles per match 14.76

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin prediction analysis

Review Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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