Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-11-22 14:30
Borussia Dortmund
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
VfB Stuttgart
Away

Prediction Summary

1
54%
X
25%
2
21%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Borussia Dortmund (Home)

Goals scored / match2.35
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate53%
BTTS rate41%

VfB Stuttgart (Away)

Goals scored / match2.41
Goals conceded / match1.94
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate82%

Team Form last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund
WWLWL
VfB Stuttgart
DWDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 100%
76% +1.5 71%
53% +2.5 47%
12% +3.5 18%
0% +4.5 6%
41% BTTS 82%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.35 goals scored at home, while VfB Stuttgart averages 2.41 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
54%
Draw
25%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Borussia Dortmund(A) 2 - 0 VfB Stuttgart Home
Nov 2025 Borussia Dortmund 3 - 3 VfB Stuttgart Draw
Feb 2025 Borussia Dortmund 1 - 2 VfB Stuttgart Away
Sep 2024 Borussia Dortmund(A) 1 - 5 VfB Stuttgart Away
Apr 2024 Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart Away

In the last 5 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Borussia Dortmund — unbeaten run (home)2
Borussia Dortmund — scoring streak (home)2
VfB Stuttgart — winless run (away)3
VfB Stuttgart — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Borussia Dortmund Win (1)54%
Draw (X)25%
VfB Stuttgart Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 100%
76% +1.5 71%
53% +2.5 47%
12% +3.5 18%
0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 0%
24% -1.5 29%
47% -2.5 53%
88% -3.5 82%
100% -4.5 94%

Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Borussia Dortmund — scored (home)2.35
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (home)0.94
VfB Stuttgart — scored (away)2.41
VfB Stuttgart — conceded (away)1.94
Model expected combined goals2.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (home)41%
VfB Stuttgart — BTTS matches (away)82%
Combined (simple average)61.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.559%
Under 9.541%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Borussia Dortmund (home)

Corners for7.2
Corners against3.4

VfB Stuttgart (away)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Borussia Dortmund
7 5 2 8 9
VfB Stuttgart
14 16 9 13 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.591%
Under 0.59%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Borussia Dortmund (home)

For1.8

VfB Stuttgart (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

Borussia Dortmund — total shots (home)14.8
VfB Stuttgart — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

Borussia Dortmund — on target (home)5.4
VfB Stuttgart — on target (away)6.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box9.68
Outside the box3.38

VfB Stuttgart

Inside the box10
Outside the box5.24

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target27%
S. Inacio
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Beier
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target19%
J. Brandt
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots VfB Stuttgart

D. Undav
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target48%
E. Demirović
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target20%
C. Führich
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target18%
B. El Khannouss
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Leweling
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Borussia Dortmund xG (home)1.88
VfB Stuttgart xG (away)1.77

Average Possession

53.24% Possession 57.68%

Team Comparison Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart

83.21% Pass accuracy 83.71%
493.21 Passes per match 517.09
0.14 Goals prevented 0.29
11.71 Fouls committed 9.62
2.62 Goalkeeper saves 3.21
1.18 Offsides 2.16
14.44 Tackles per match 14.24

League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart prediction analysis

Review Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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