Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Botafogo vs Ceara

Botafogo vs Ceara prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-06-04 23:00
Botafogo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Ceara
Away

Prediction Summary

1
67%
X
21%
2
12%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
61%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Botafogo (Home)

Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate53%

Ceara (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Botafogo
WDDWW
Ceara
LLDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 53%
68% +1.5 21%
42% +2.5 0%
16% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Medium.

Botafogo averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Ceara averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
67%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
67%
Draw
21%
Away Win
12%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
39%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Botafogo(A) 2 - 0 Ceara Home
Jun 2025 Botafogo 3 - 2 Ceara Home
Aug 2022 Botafogo 1 - 1 Ceara Draw
Apr 2022 Botafogo(A) 3 - 1 Ceara Home
Feb 2021 Botafogo(A) 1 - 2 Ceara Away

In the last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Botafogo — unbeaten run (home)5
Botafogo — scoring streak (home)5
Ceara — winless run (away)2
Ceara — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Botafogo Win (1)67%
Draw (X)21%
Ceara Win (2)12%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 53%
68% +1.5 21%
42% +2.5 0%
16% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 47%
32% -1.5 79%
58% -2.5 100%
84% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Botafogo vs Ceara — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Botafogo — scored (home)2.05
Botafogo — conceded (home)1.26
Ceara — scored (away)0.74
Ceara — conceded (away)1.16
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes39%
No61%

Rate per Team

Botafogo — BTTS matches (home)53%
Ceara — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Botafogo (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against3.8

Ceara (away)

Corners for3.9
Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Botafogo
12 8 12 8 4
Ceara
8 18 13 7 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.589%
Under 2.511%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Botafogo (home)

For2.3

Ceara (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Botafogo — total shots (home)16.4
Ceara — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Botafogo — on target (home)6.3
Ceara — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Botafogo

Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11

Ceara

Inside the box6.87
Outside the box4.95

Player Shots Botafogo

Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Savarino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Artur
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Ceara

Pedro Raul
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target38%
Éder
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Pedro Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
A. Galeano
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Vina
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Botafogo xG (home)1.32
Ceara xG (away)0.96

Average Possession

51.76% Possession 42.03%

Team Comparison Botafogo vs Ceara

85.26% Pass accuracy 79.03%
454.05 Passes per match 330.84
0.12 Goals prevented 0.17
14.61 Fouls committed 13.61
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 2.97
1.36 Offsides 2.42
15.24 Tackles per match 15.84

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Botafogo vs Ceara prediction analysis

Review Botafogo vs Ceara with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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